Saders Snatch Draw from the Jaws of Defeat Which they Previously Snatched from the Jaws of Victory

I guess a draw is better than a loss – just ask the Stormers who handed the Force their first win since Queen Victoria reigned.

But what in the world of Carmen Miranda is going on in the Crusader’s camp? They romp out to an 18-0 lead in Wellington, stick it in neutral and let the Canes out-play them at their own game. Then when they realize they’re in trouble it’s time for a bit of panic and oh deary-dear. They very nearly lost to a team they have beaten in 7 of their last 8 encounters.

If you missed the game last night, the Crusaders scored the equalizer try a full three minutes after the siren. Then Mr 1000-points Dan Carter choked on the conversion that would’ve given them an undeserved victory.

Nonu, Smith and Hore were brilliant for the Canes. Their All Black jerseys looked very secure last night. Cory Jane was also reliable and should be the preferred back-up to Mils Muliaina in the national team.

The same could not be said of certain Crusaders. Keiran Read had a below average night. Brad Thorn seems to be concerned with self-preservation most of the time. Sam Whitelock and Colin Slade both had what locks and fullbacks should never have – butterfingers. Carter was great on defense but was absent-minded on a night when his team sorely needed his leadership.

But what really bugs this Saders fan is how the team often seems to lack heart, particularly on defense. If you want an exemplar of guts at the breakdown, look no further than Andrew Hore. He’s into everything and I’m sure he pinched the ball more than any flanker on the field.

It’s often said of Crusader victories that they were achieved without the team getting out of second gear. You could say the same of their losses in draws. I’m beginning to wonder if there’s anything beyond second gear.

As usual, I have a few suggestions for Coach Blackadder.

On Monday take the squad to the bottom of Mt Hutt. Tell them every spot is open and the first 8 forwards and the first 7 backs to reach the top will get to start against the Tahs. Anyone who doesn’t make it to the top can go play for the Blues.

Incidentally, you have a game in Pretoria coming up soon so running up hills should be a regular feature of your training.

Second, you have a number of talented people competing for the same spot. Here’s how you can decide who gets to start. Put a rugby ball in the middle of the pitch. Put, say, Andy Ellis at one end and Kahn Fotuali’i at the other. Blow your whistle. First one to pick the ball up and score a try gets the Number 9 jersey. Do the same thing for the four locks crowding each other on the bench. Don’t do it for the flankers though because we don’t want Richie and Read getting embarrassed by the great and departing Thomas Waldrom.

Incidentally, you should do whatever it takes to keep Waldrom. Bury his passport, put him on the travel watchlist, but don’t let him go.

Third, it was nice to see a maul or two last night. They weren’t pretty but by golly they had the Canes in a tiz. There’s a real opportunity to become the only Kiwi side that masters the maul. BTW, the scrum is looking great. Given Owen Franks a pat on the head.

Fourth, burn all that cotton-wool that you’ve been using to protect your marque players. This idea that they need to look after themselves has affected their playing mentality. They’re holding back. Swap the cotton wool for a rocket up the bum of some of your senior players who should know better.

Fifth, anyone team member caught putting highlights in their hair can also go and play for the Blues.

Sixth, if none of the above works, given Reuben Thorne a call. I believe he’s playing for the Cup Noodles team in Japan somewhere. He was no superstar but his worth ethic is legendary. He could teach the 2010 squad a thing or two about that.

New Rules = New Record

The Hurricanes slotted a Super Rugby record 9 penalty goals last night at North Harbour Stadium. Stu Dickinson’s whistle kept them in the game in the first half (despite Willie Ripia’s average kicking) then gave them the victory in the second when ever-reliable Piri Weepu started banging them in from all over. I forget the exact penalty count but it was a lot.

Full credit to the Canes for adapting to the new breakdown rules. Auckland Blues – did you miss that memo or something?

Super 14 Predictions (2010)

At the start of every season we at Rugby Asteroid like to stick our necks out and make predictions. Unlike what you might find at some of the more fancy rugby websites, these predictions are not made on considered assessments of form, but are rather based on who we like at any given moment.

And who do we like more in 2010 than the Crusaders?

Last year was probably the worst start in Sader history. With eight key players missing they lost 4 of their first 5 games before clawing their way back into contention. Although they didn’t make the Finals, having lost their semi-final to the Bulls in Pretoria, in our view they were the second-best team in the league by the end of the season. And look who’s come back/joined the side since then!

The entire pack, from Franks to Waldrom, could out-muscle any All Black pack made up of non-Crusaders. The front row isn’t bad and will hold up as long as Corey Flynn’s arms don’t break. Next to him are Franks and Franks. For the second row coach Blackadder can choose between Brad Thorn, Chris Jack, and Isaac Ross, every one an All Black. For the back row there’s Richie McCaw, Keiran Read, George Whitelock and Thomas Waldrom.

Who’s Thomas Waldrom you ask? For those of you who don’t know Waldrom, he led NZ in ball carries last year and was one of the top tacklers. Nicknamed Thomas the Tank, Waldrom doesn’t look like much but boy he can play. If he were active in any era other than the McCaw era, he would be an automatic starter for the ABs.

The Crusader backs are led by one Dan Carter and consist of three decent wings (Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Kade Poki), two very good fullbacks (Jared Payne and Colin Slade), an occasionally outstanding scrum-half (Andy Ellis), and two small but reliable centres (Tim Bateman and ?).

With 13 All Blacks in the team, every match against the Crusaders will be like a test match. Who can stop the Crusaders in 2010? We predict no one. No one at all. Barring unforeseen injuries we expect the Saders to win every game up to and including the Final. You might as well hand them the trophy now and starting preparing for the 3N.

Who else looks good in NZ? No one frankly. The Chiefs reckon they can go one better than their Finals loss to the Bulls. Good luck to them, but they’re dreaming. Expect some regression to the mean this year.

The Hurricanes know the clock is ticking and if they’re going to do it it’s now or never. It’ll be never.

The Blues think that by relieving Canterbury of NZ’s worst kicker, Stephen Brett, that somehow they will be able to fix their litany of woes.

The Highlanders are led by Jamie McIntosh, who made it clear during the off-season that he doesn’t want to be there, and Jimmy Cowan, who only shines when surrounded by the calming influence of All Black talent. And you Otagoans can start packing up the Ranfurly Shield. You won’t be holding on to that for long.

In Australia I expect the real competition will be between the Waratahs and the Brumbies. It will be tight and it will be fierce but I reckon a Giteau trumps a Barnes (just) and that the Brumbies will be the team to beat.

Historically the Reds couldn’t win a lottery even if they held all the tickets. But this year with new coach Ewen McKenzie and some promising Wallaby talent coming through (Will Genia, Quade Cooper), they should finish higher than the Force who are rebuilding (12 new players).

Incidentally, expect things to get interesting next year when the Melbourne franchise starts up. In case you hadn’t heard, the yet to be named Melbourne team will include up to 10 international players, hopefully Argentinian, but likely Kiwi.

Regarding South Africa I confess I’m somewhat uninformed. I’m aware that the Lions offered big money to attract Carlos Spencer. That will make the Lions entertaining but I doubt it will be a happy marriage. Teams built on mercenaries – no offense King Carlos – seldom go the distance.

Despite having the best flanker in the Republic in Heinrich Brüssow, the Cheetahs will compete ferociously for last place with the Lions and the Force.

The Stormers have lost JDV to Munster but have gained Bryan Habana and Jacque Fourie. These two gents are at the top of their game and should help keep the Stormers in the mix until the closing rounds of the season.

The Sharks are like the Hurricanes; long on talent but short on trophies. They nearly won the Currie Cup last year; they nearly won the Super 14 two years before that. This year they’ve signed some promising young talent but they have lost Francois Steyn. They will not beat the Bulls and the probably won’t beat the Stormers.

For my money you can’t go past the homegrown talent of the Bulls. They’ve lost Habana but they have a culture that breeds winners like Morne Steyne and Victor Matfield. With Fourie du Preez leading from behind the scrum they will be the best team in the Republic. They can’t win away but they can’t lose at home. If they’re able to stick to their tried and true game plan, they will easily make the play-offs.

Last year we predicted both the Crusaders and the Chiefs would make the play-offs, and they did. However we wrongly predicted that the Waratahs and Sharks would be good enough to be up there with them and they weren’t. The Tahs finished 5^th and the Sharks came a lowly 8^th. We were surprised by the strong performances of the Bulls and Hurricanes.

So how do we predict the last Super 14 will finish up? Just like this:

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes

A detailed fixtures list for the 2010 S14 tournament can be found here.

Super 14 Semi-Final Predictions (2009)

What another brilliant finale to a fiercely-fought season! The last game of the regular season finished just a few hours ago with only one point separating the first and sixth-best teams in the league. Commiserations to all the Sharks fans out there who must be heart-broken after their team came oh so close. Another few minutes and a drop goal would’ve put your team in the final four.

At the start of the season we predicted the Chiefs and the Crusaders to make the final four and they did. We also predicted the Tahs would be the best of the Aussie teams and they were.

We predicted the Bulls would have the measure of the Sharks and they did, but we also predicted the Sharks would finish higher on the table, yet they didn’t.

We predicted the Canes would lose to the better teams and they did, going down to the Tahs, Bulls, Sharks and Chiefs. But they also notched up some impressive wins over the Saders and the Brumbies.

Just four teams remain. Here are our predictions for the semi-finals.

On Friday the Hurricanes meet the Chiefs in Waikato. This is a rematch of the game they played just last weekend. In that one the Canes were soundly beaten by Stephen Donald.

History favours the Canes in this derby – they usually smash the Chiefs. But the Chiefs are on a winning roll having lost just once in their last ten outings.

My only question is whether the Chiefs have the BMT to deliver the goods on the day. They have little finals experience, but they have many experienced players. Led by the brilliant Mils Muliaini, they should be able to shut down the Canes running game. I expect the Chiefs to win by 6.

On Saturday the 2008 champions meet the 2007 champions in Pretoria. Earlier in the season we suggested that the Sharks were the pretenders to the Crusaders’ throne but the Bulls are just as keen for a change in dynasty.

Since the middle of the 2008 season the Bulls have been in phenomenal form losing just 3 of their last 17 games. They are the winningest side in Super Rugby over the past 14 months.

That said, history favours the Crusaders with the men in red beating the men in blue 11 times to 3 in Super Rugby matches. The Crusaders won a tight game in Christchurch this season and blew the Bulls out of the water in Pretoria last season. Can they do it again this weekend? You better believe it.

The Crusaders had a horror start to the 2009 season but have won 7 of their last 8 games. Significantly, this young side has improved with every game. They play boring low-scoring rugby, but it’s effective. Their red wall is the best defense in the league. Provided the erratic Stephen Brett doesn’t kick the game away, I expect the Crusaders to win by 2.

And what of the 2009 grand final? I predict the last match of the season will be a rematch of the very first match of the season – Crusaders v. Chiefs.

Postscript: Far be it from us to toot our own horns, but last year we correctly called the winners of both the semi-finals and the grand final.

Super 14 Predictions (2009)

Over the last week we’ve had a few hundred hits on the post with my predictions for last year’s S14 tournament, so I thought I’d better gaze into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the coming season looks like. And for the record, we’re pretty darn accurate here at Rugby Asteroid. We picked the Crusaders to win at the start of last season and they did. However, we dropped the ball big time on the runners up. We expected the Sharks to finish 2nd but they came 3rd. Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

Did He Jump or Was He Pushed?

Jerry Collins announced his retirement from NZ rugby on the weekend. He said he had made no commitments for the future, but he was done with All Black rugby. You could hear the collective gasp of relief from Irish and English flankers.

The next day we learned that he would not have made the All Black training squad as his form has not been great this Super 14 season. So putting two and two together, one can conclude that Jerry was given the opportunity to commit hari kari to avoid the indignity of being dropped from the squad.

Is it just me or is there something really funny going on here?

First, as to Jerry’s form. He has not played at his usual standard but my understanding was the guy is recovering from rib injury. Any sort of rib injury is incredibly painful. Even minor cartilage damage can make breathing feel like you’re being knived. It’s entirely consistent with Jerry’s character to return to the game earlier than he should and to play through a bit of pain, but no one with dodgy ribs is going to be able to make and give the hard tackles without some loss in ability. So Jerry’s loss in form can probably be attributed to his injury, and injuries heal.

Second, prior to the retirement announcement, every journalist in the country was guessing that Jerry would make the squad in spite of his injury. This is because Jerry brings something to the team that you don’t find in players like Chris Masoe, Keiran Reid, even Richie McCaw. It’s called intimidation. Now I’ve not had the pleasure of standing opposite a Schalk Burger or a George Smith, but I imagine that those who do take a lot of comfort from having Jerry Collins beside them. Even broken, even sitting on the bench, Jerry contributes.

Third, it was my understanding that broken players got a chance to recover. Was a message really sent to Jerry saying “we’re not going to be needing your services even months from now so you might want to think about shoving off?” Where would All Black rugby be today if Richie McCaw had been discarded when he had his string of concussions a few years ago? When did we start shooting our wounded war-horses? No. I find it hard to believe that Jerry would not have been very eligible for inclusion in the Tri-Nations once his ribs had had a chance to heal. Sure, he may not be ready for the Irish in ten days or the English after that, but who in his right mind wouldn’t want Jerry in Bloemfontein or Durban or wherever for the Tri-Nations? No one else told the injured Joe Rokocoko to pack his bags. No, there must be something more going on here.

Having ruled out injury and non-selection as good reasons for Jerry’s shock retirement, there’s really only one explanation left. Jerry wants to head north sooner rather than later. My wife reminds me that Jerry has a child growing up in England or some place. Family factors might be involved. And such is the nature of Jerry’s character that he is not likely to go shopping for contracts while he was currently signed with the NZRU. I understand Jerry had a year to go on his current contract. He was no doubt disappointed with the Hurricanes Super 14 season – they wanted more than a semi-spot. He knew he wouldn’t be able to play in the early tests and no doubt he was well aware of the rising stock of Keiran Reid (Crusaders) and Jerome Kaino (Blues). His current circumstances merely brought forward what he was planning to do all along – join the exodus north.

In short: he jumped.

Our All Black Team of 2008

About this time of the year I pick my preferred All Black team on the basis of performance in the Super 14. I usually stick my list on the fridge where everyone can see it and have a good laugh. “You picked him?!”

I like to take a few risks which is why Anthony Tuitavake is on my team this year. If you haven’t seen him play, think of what you’d get if you crossed Christian Cullen with Ma’a Nonu. (And no, I don’t mean an injury-prone, out-of-control prima donna.) Tuitavake has great pace and the ability to get defenders going in two directions. He’s a bit of a nimbler version of Isaia Toeava. (Note: Last year I picked Isaia Toeava who had a fantastic Super 14 season but then wilted on the international stage.)

I don’t necessarily pick the best player for each spot, but the best for the larger combinations that exist in my head. If you don’t like my choices, feel free to send in your own choice. Just hit the “Leave a reply” button below.

15. Mils Muliaina (reserve: Leon McDonald)

14. Sitiveni Sivivatu (Lelia Masaga)

13. Anthony Tuitavake (Sean Maitland)

12. Stephen Brett (Conrad Smith)

11. Josevata Rokocoko (David Smith)

10. Dan Carter (Stephen Donald)

9. Brendon Leonard (Andy Ellis)

8. Rodney So’oialo (Mose Tuiali’i)

7. Richie McCaw (Chris Masoe)

6. Jerry Collins (Kieran Read)

5. Ali Williams (Ross Filipo)

4. Jason Eaton (Brad Thorn)

3. Greg Somerville (?)

2. Andrew Hore (Keven Mealamu)

1. Tony Woodcock (John Afoa)

Notable omissions:

• Isaia Toeava – long on potential, short on BMT
• Neemia Tialata – too slow and a bit over-rated
• Piri Weepu – I love Weepu, but he’s too inconsistent for the test stage
• Nic Evans – he’s good, but Stephen Donald is a match-winner and deserves a chance
• Ma’a Nonu – he’s a great tackle-breaker, but he takes too much on himself; he doesn’t work well with others
• Casey Laulala – he just hasn’t been as brilliant as he was last year
• anybody from the Highlanders – I was actually thinking of Jimmy Cowan until a week ago

This dream team consists of 5 Crusaders players, 4 Hurricances, 3 Blues and 3 Chiefs.

Super 14 Semi-Final Predictions (2008)

At the beginning of the season we predicted a final between the Crusaders and the Sharks in Christchurch. So far all is going to plan though the Hurricanes and Waratahs might yet have something to say about that.

So now we’re down to four teams, three games, two finalists, and one eventual champion. Here’s our take on the games to be played this coming weekend.

1. On Friday night the Crusaders will host the Hurricanes in Christchurch. Historically the Saders have had the measure of the Canes. In the fifteen times that these two teams have met in Super Rugby, the Saders have won 12 times, the Canes just 3. Playing away will hardly help the Wellingtonians’ cause as they’ve not won a game in Christchurch in 7 years. That said, the difference between the two sides in their last four contests was less than 12 points, so it could be close on the night. Both teams will be coming off losses – the Canes narrowly lost to the Blues on Friday night, while the Saders lost to the gutsy Highlanders on Saturday. Neither team has lost two games in a row this year. The numbers show that the Canes tend to bounce back emphatically after losses, while the Crusaders have not had a really convincing win in six weeks. Much press is being made of the supposed chinks in the Saders’ armour. But semi-final rugby has different pressures from the regular season and we expect the Saders’ class and greater experience to shine on the night. PREDICTION: Crusaders to win by 10.
2. On Saturday night the Waratahs will host the Sharks in Sydney. This is a big hill for the Sharks to climb. Not only do they have the inconvenience of long-distance travel, but history is very much against them winning at Sydney. The last time they did so was in March 2000. These two teams have met 11 times and the Tahs have been victorious on 7 occasions; the Sharks have won on only 3 occasions. The Sharks are coming off two huge wins, but these were both in Durban. They have not done so well on the road this year as the Tahs well know, having thumped them in Sydney just three weeks ago. In contrast, the Tahs enter the semis with a less definitive record of recent weeks. Much like the Crusaders they have not finished particularly strongly. This will give Sharks’ fan much hope. But one thing the Tahs do very well is win in Sydney. They haven’t lost a game at home all season. PREDICTION: Waratahs to win by 5.

And Then There Were Seven

In what is becoming a distinguishing feature of the Super 14, three of the top four positions are still up for grabs in the final round. Amazingly, with just one game to be played by each team, half of the league has a chance of making the cut. Something like this happens almost every year.

Last year in final four weren’t decided until the very final match of the tournament when the Bulls pulled off a miracle beating the Reds 92 to 3 propelling themselves from 6^th to 2^nd place. In the first year of the Super 14 (2006), something like 11 or 12 teams had a statistical shot at making the semi-finals with three rounds to go. That was the first year the Bulls showed their knack for pulling rabbits out of last-round hats which they did by scoring exactly the 33 points they needed in their final game to take the Sharks’ spot in the semis.

Surely the rivalry in the Super 14 is one of the bright spots in SANZAR Rugby. One of the great things about this competition is that any team can get up and beat any other on the day. Just ask the Chiefs. A few weeks ago they beat the league leaders. Yesterday they were beaten by the wooden-spooners. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Highlanders to get up and snatch a win against the Crusaders in Christchurch next week (though I wouldn’t bet on it). The Lions may even damage the Stormers’ chances in Jo’burg (but I wouldn’t bet on that either).

Here’s how the final round is shaping up for the seven teams that still have a chance of making it through:

1. Crusaders (currently with 52 points) v Highlanders (Christchurch). Expect Robbie Deans to rest his stars for the last game against the Highlanders. The Crusaders have nothing to play for and this is a good chance for the second stringers to get a run. After yesterday’s near-fiasco against the Reds the reserves have a lot to prove. Saders should win.

2. Hurricanes (40 points) v Blues (Auckland): While attention has been focused elsewhere, the Hurricances have been quietly getting the job done these past few weeks winning four of their past five. Yet they still need to win against the Blues to secure a spot. If they lose or draw their fate will be decided by other teams. For years the Blues had the goods on the Canes, but not lately. The Canes have won their last three match-ups and have given the Blues two good hidings in Auckland. Expect them to do it again.

3. Waratahs (39 points) v Reds (Brisbane): Amazingly, the Reds played better after Latham left the field injured yesterday. Perhaps this was because the new Wallaby coach was sitting on the sidelines. Expect a similarly fierce contest when Queenlanders and New South Welshman meet next week. There’s no way the Reds will lay down and let the Tahs waltz through to the semis without a fight. That said, the Tahs will win.

4. Stormers (37 points) v Lions (Jo’burg): Let’s face it – the only way the Lions beat the Chiefs yesterday was by playing dirty and kicking 100%. The Stormers will win.

5. Sharks (37 points) v Chiefs (Durban): The Sharks finally managed a much-needed win against the Cheetahs arresting a three game losing streak. But let’s be real – the Sharks haven’t beaten a top six team in two months. This has not been their year. Given the mismatch in the Stormers game, the Sharks will be hoping the Reds can beat the Tahs in the earlier match.

6. Blues (36 points) v Canes (Auckland): The Blues beat the lowly Highlanders yesterday and suddenly the diet in Auckland has changed from crucified rugby player to foamy cups of wishful thinking. Honestly, the journalists in this town are like stockbrokers, they make money whether you’re up or down. As long as there is grist to grind they’ll grind it. So let this outsider come in with a little dose of reality – “fellas, you’ve not done real well against good teams this year – you’re just one win and four losses with another loss on the way.”

7. Chiefs (34 points) v Sharks (Durban): I heard on the radio that Stephen Donald had been taken to hospital after their shock loss to the Lions owing to some neck injury. If he’s out, the Chiefs have no chance of beating the Sharks in Durban next week and their season is already over. If he’s fit this will be the best match of the last round, unless of course, the Blues beat the Canes or the Tahs beat the Reds, in which case, this game will count for nothing. My head says Sharks, but my heart, liver and pancreas say “go Chiefs!”

Those Sneaky Sharks

It seems the boys from Durban are prepared to do whatever it takes to win. Denied a championship in the dying minutes of last year’s S14 Final they are leaving nothing to chance this year. Knowing that Kiwi players have difficulty handling the French they imported the talented Monsieur Michelak from France. (If there are any other northern hemisphere players in this tournament I don’t know who they are.) They also hired the Tongan thug Epi Taione who is missing the next 6 weeks for a bout of headbutting. They fielded 16 players in their game against the Queensland Reds. And they cynically interfered with a try in the dying minutes of their game against the Hurricanes. These dubious tactics have paid dividends, for the Sharks are currently sitting second on the table.

But if there’s any natural justice in the world of rugby, then wrongs will surely be righted in the Tour from Hell that the Sharks have just commenced. Look at their schedule;

– this weekend it’s the, ahem, inform Highlanders at the House of Pain

– then it’s the increasingly desperate Brumbies in Canberra

– followed by the resurging Waratahs in Sydney

– and finally it’s the unbeatable Crusaders in Christchurch

Our prediction? The Sharks will go home with at least two big fat losses and maybe even three. They will then find themselves in a ferocious fight for a good play-off spot with about six other teams. That said, they will then win their last two games at home and finish in the final four regardless. For better or worse, the Sharks usually do.