Super 14 Predictions (2010)

At the start of every season we at Rugby Asteroid like to stick our necks out and make predictions. Unlike what you might find at some of the more fancy rugby websites, these predictions are not made on considered assessments of form, but are rather based on who we like at any given moment.

And who do we like more in 2010 than the Crusaders?

Last year was probably the worst start in Sader history. With eight key players missing they lost 4 of their first 5 games before clawing their way back into contention. Although they didn’t make the Finals, having lost their semi-final to the Bulls in Pretoria, in our view they were the second-best team in the league by the end of the season. And look who’s come back/joined the side since then!

The entire pack, from Franks to Waldrom, could out-muscle any All Black pack made up of non-Crusaders. The front row isn’t bad and will hold up as long as Corey Flynn’s arms don’t break. Next to him are Franks and Franks. For the second row coach Blackadder can choose between Brad Thorn, Chris Jack, and Isaac Ross, every one an All Black. For the back row there’s Richie McCaw, Keiran Read, George Whitelock and Thomas Waldrom.

Who’s Thomas Waldrom you ask? For those of you who don’t know Waldrom, he led NZ in ball carries last year and was one of the top tacklers. Nicknamed Thomas the Tank, Waldrom doesn’t look like much but boy he can play. If he were active in any era other than the McCaw era, he would be an automatic starter for the ABs.

The Crusader backs are led by one Dan Carter and consist of three decent wings (Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Kade Poki), two very good fullbacks (Jared Payne and Colin Slade), an occasionally outstanding scrum-half (Andy Ellis), and two small but reliable centres (Tim Bateman and ?).

With 13 All Blacks in the team, every match against the Crusaders will be like a test match. Who can stop the Crusaders in 2010? We predict no one. No one at all. Barring unforeseen injuries we expect the Saders to win every game up to and including the Final. You might as well hand them the trophy now and starting preparing for the 3N.

Who else looks good in NZ? No one frankly. The Chiefs reckon they can go one better than their Finals loss to the Bulls. Good luck to them, but they’re dreaming. Expect some regression to the mean this year.

The Hurricanes know the clock is ticking and if they’re going to do it it’s now or never. It’ll be never.

The Blues think that by relieving Canterbury of NZ’s worst kicker, Stephen Brett, that somehow they will be able to fix their litany of woes.

The Highlanders are led by Jamie McIntosh, who made it clear during the off-season that he doesn’t want to be there, and Jimmy Cowan, who only shines when surrounded by the calming influence of All Black talent. And you Otagoans can start packing up the Ranfurly Shield. You won’t be holding on to that for long.

In Australia I expect the real competition will be between the Waratahs and the Brumbies. It will be tight and it will be fierce but I reckon a Giteau trumps a Barnes (just) and that the Brumbies will be the team to beat.

Historically the Reds couldn’t win a lottery even if they held all the tickets. But this year with new coach Ewen McKenzie and some promising Wallaby talent coming through (Will Genia, Quade Cooper), they should finish higher than the Force who are rebuilding (12 new players).

Incidentally, expect things to get interesting next year when the Melbourne franchise starts up. In case you hadn’t heard, the yet to be named Melbourne team will include up to 10 international players, hopefully Argentinian, but likely Kiwi.

Regarding South Africa I confess I’m somewhat uninformed. I’m aware that the Lions offered big money to attract Carlos Spencer. That will make the Lions entertaining but I doubt it will be a happy marriage. Teams built on mercenaries – no offense King Carlos – seldom go the distance.

Despite having the best flanker in the Republic in Heinrich Brüssow, the Cheetahs will compete ferociously for last place with the Lions and the Force.

The Stormers have lost JDV to Munster but have gained Bryan Habana and Jacque Fourie. These two gents are at the top of their game and should help keep the Stormers in the mix until the closing rounds of the season.

The Sharks are like the Hurricanes; long on talent but short on trophies. They nearly won the Currie Cup last year; they nearly won the Super 14 two years before that. This year they’ve signed some promising young talent but they have lost Francois Steyn. They will not beat the Bulls and the probably won’t beat the Stormers.

For my money you can’t go past the homegrown talent of the Bulls. They’ve lost Habana but they have a culture that breeds winners like Morne Steyne and Victor Matfield. With Fourie du Preez leading from behind the scrum they will be the best team in the Republic. They can’t win away but they can’t lose at home. If they’re able to stick to their tried and true game plan, they will easily make the play-offs.

Last year we predicted both the Crusaders and the Chiefs would make the play-offs, and they did. However we wrongly predicted that the Waratahs and Sharks would be good enough to be up there with them and they weren’t. The Tahs finished 5^th and the Sharks came a lowly 8^th. We were surprised by the strong performances of the Bulls and Hurricanes.

So how do we predict the last Super 14 will finish up? Just like this:

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes

A detailed fixtures list for the 2010 S14 tournament can be found here.

Canterbury Win Again

It must be sickening to support some team other than Canterbury – I wouldn’t know. For us Cantabrians we’re used to winning all the big games. Even when Wellington mounted a late charge in last night’s Air New Zealand final I didn’t doubt for a second that George Whitelock’s men would be able to re-take their strangehold on the game.

What is it about Wellington and big game implosions?

The Unluckiest Man in Rugby

Pity poor old Piri Weepu. He’s made seven finals appearances in New Zealand’s provincial tournament and recorded seven losses.

Yep, that’s 0 from 7.

A fair number of those losses have been to Canterbury including the last 2 Air NZ Cups. In addition to provincial matches Wellington has been consistently beaten by Canterbury in the Super 14 mostly infamously in the fog final of 2006.

Now I don’t think Piri Weepu is a bad player and neither do the All Black selectors (35 tests!). He’s Mr Reliable, he’s unflappable under pressure, and let’s face it, every year there are 12 teams that aren’t good enough to make the finals.

It’s just Piri’s bad luck that he happens to play in the age of Dan Carter.

Wallabies Wobble in Wellington

The All Blacks ended their Tri-Nations season with the biggest winning margin of the series defeating the Wallabies 33-6 tonight in Wellington. It was a comprehensive victory with the ABs dominating both halves of the test match. The Australians looked good for about 8 minutes then faded as the game wore on. In sharp contrast with their brilliant performance against the Boks a fortnight ago, tonight they had little discipline and no clue.

Matt Giteau, where were you?

Several players stood tall for NZ tonight. Dan Carter turned in another near-perfect kicking performance (6 from 7). Jimmy Cowan had a solid night behind messy scrums. Nonu’s try was magnificent. Tialata and Rokocoko both played better than they have all season.

Canterbury Wins Again

The Tri-Nations season has been bracketed with wins by Canterbury, first in the Super 14, and tonight in the Air New Zealand Cup. Wellington were once again kept winless in a final played in Christchurch despite playing well in the wet conditions. Once again a clutch game for the red and blacks was won with rock-solid defence.

Now with yet another trophy safely locked away in the cabinet, some of these mighty Cantabrians will be Hong Kong-bound for a game that I am personally looking forward to, as I’ve got tickets. All I can say to the departing Kiwis is, be prepare for warm weather. Tonight it’s cold and wet in Christchurch but hot and muggy here in Hong Kong. See you next Saturday!

All Blacks Unbeaten in 2008!

… while the Wallabies have yet to win a single game. (Insert snigger here.)

Last night’s match against the elements, and the Irish, was an inauspicious start to the season. In contrast with the Springboks, who made the Welsh look “embarrassing”, to quote the Welsh coach, the All Blacks looked like a team that had been assembled in haste. But a win’s a win and we’ll take it.

Did I mention the weather? It was most foul. A cold southerly was blowing up the harbour and the swirly breeze within the Cake Tin meant the goalpost flags were occasionally blowing in opposite directions. Both Carter and O’Gara did well under the circumstances.

So the new test season is underway and it’s time to begin gauging the performances of the old and new All Blacks. Let us consider how last night’s performance in Wellington affected the stock price of individual players:

PLAYERS WHOSE STOCK WENT UP

Richie McCaw led from the front and was universally judged to be the best player on the field. He was everywhere at the right time. As usual, Richie copped a bit of rough play from frustrated opponents. As usual, he showed his class by not retaliating in kind.

Dan Carter kicked masterfully in difficult circumstances. His kicks in general play and at goal were first-rate, as was his tackling.

Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu were brilliant at 12 and 13. Nonu, we’ve missed you! You made the great BOD look old and slow.

PLAYERS WHOSE STOCK WENT DOWN

Sitiveni Sivivatu – yes, he scored the first try, but he also let one in for the Irish. He spun like a turnstile. He was also targetted to some effect by O’Gara’s long range kicking as was…

Anthony Tuitavake – this was a tough first game for the newest All Black. Had the conditions been different he might’ve made some of the cutting runs we saw in Auckland. As it was, the only time he touched the ball was when he was trying to catch it and he looked like a liability every time.

AND THE VALUE OF THE TEAM?

I have to say, I came away from last night’s game with real doubts. The Springboks looked like champs against the Welsh; the Wallabies have a great new coach and that will no doubt boost their famous self-confidence; but the ABs of 2008 are nothing like the ABs of 2007. The quality of the front row has deteriorated (out: Carl Hayman, in for next week: Ben Franks), we’ve lost our two best wings (Howlett’s celebrating a Heineken Cup win in Munster; Rocokoco’s broken), we’ve lost the Intimidator Jerry Collins, Carter hasn’t been as brilliant as he was last year; and we only have one world class lock where last year we had two (bye-bye Chris Jack).

Methinks this year’s Tri-Nations is going to be a very close affair indeed. The era of AB dominance could be over.

Storm in a Cake-Tin

It’s a windy afternoon here in Wellington and we’re just hours away from the All Blacks first test in eight months. Eight months! My, how time drags on when your last game was a defeat.

We’re staying a stone’s throw from Westpac Stadium and a few minutes ago we saw some of the Irish team making their way to the ground. They looked very cheerful. Indeed, they have reason to be. For this is a team filled with Munster players. Munster is not only the best club team in Europe, they are the only Irish team to ever beat the All Blacks. Perhaps tonight will bring about the upset Irish fans are hoping for.

I’m looking forward to my first ever visit to the Cake Tin. Can you believe this is also the first ever time I’ve seen the ABs play in a test match. (I’ve seen them play Western Australia a couple of times.) As usual, I fully expect the ABs to win, but the weather could be a factor.

Did I mention the wind? It’s blowing a gale outside. I went for a walk this morning and I saw a mattress flying down the street. I kid you not. How Wellingtonians manage to live here – and how O’Gara and Carter are going to kick straight tonight – is beyond me. Plus, the Met Service is predicting really foul weather for this evening when the wind changes to a southerly.

I’ve got more than one reason to be concerned about the weather. Tomorrow we’re getting on the Interislander and making the crossing to Picton. As I get seasick in the bath I’m a bit nervy about that. And this morning’s trip to the Wahine Memorial in Seatoun was probably not a confidence-inspiring trip.

Anyway, that’s tomorrow’s problem. Tonight we’ve got a game of rugby to enjoy.