Beatabull!

The Bulls’ 12 game winning streak came to a sudden end tonight at Mt Eden. Stephen Brett put up 22 points and the Blues won 32-17. The Blues played better than they have in eons and ran the Bulls ragged with their wide game.

In the coming fortnight the Bulls are likely to be tested by both the Chiefs (in Hamilton) and the Reds (in Brisbane). Meanwhile the Blues will be looking to repeat their form against the Stormers. It looks like there will be a real shake-up at the top of the table.

Stephen Brett: Auckland Hero?

Auckland Blues fly-half Stephen Brett had a hand in all three tries scored at North Harbour Stadium last night. He scored the first and set up the second to John Afoa, then handed a gift pass to opposition winger Hosea Gear.

If you missed the game, Brett was brilliant in the first half and woeful in the second. For 40 minutes he was Auckland’s inspirational leader. After the break he gave Wellington the start they needed to secure the victory. For those of us who hail from Canterbury it was deja vu all over again.

Did you not wonder, Aucklanders, why we Cantabrians didn’t make a fuss when you took Brett away from us over the summer?

Stephen Brett is a talented rugby player – make no doubt about it. But unfortunately he’s as steady as a drunk on a skateboard. One moment he’s setting up tries, the next he’s a revolving door while Pierre Spies races past to score the semi-final winning try for the Bulls last year. Did you think we’d forgotten?

Last year the Saders lost 4 of their first 5 games. You hate to blame a single player but if Brett had made even half of his kicks those four losses would’ve been victories. And then we would’ve been playing the Bulls in Christchurch not Pretoria and you know what that means.

No, we’re over it. Really. I was thrilled to hear that Auckland had secured Brett’s services and I really hope it works out for him and them. You guys look good together.

Auckland, the home of erratic champions like Carlos Spencer and Isaia Toeava. Brett should fit right in with the Blues. It’s a perfect match.

New Rules = New Record

The Hurricanes slotted a Super Rugby record 9 penalty goals last night at North Harbour Stadium. Stu Dickinson’s whistle kept them in the game in the first half (despite Willie Ripia’s average kicking) then gave them the victory in the second when ever-reliable Piri Weepu started banging them in from all over. I forget the exact penalty count but it was a lot.

Full credit to the Canes for adapting to the new breakdown rules. Auckland Blues – did you miss that memo or something?

Super 14 Predictions (2010)

At the start of every season we at Rugby Asteroid like to stick our necks out and make predictions. Unlike what you might find at some of the more fancy rugby websites, these predictions are not made on considered assessments of form, but are rather based on who we like at any given moment.

And who do we like more in 2010 than the Crusaders?

Last year was probably the worst start in Sader history. With eight key players missing they lost 4 of their first 5 games before clawing their way back into contention. Although they didn’t make the Finals, having lost their semi-final to the Bulls in Pretoria, in our view they were the second-best team in the league by the end of the season. And look who’s come back/joined the side since then!

The entire pack, from Franks to Waldrom, could out-muscle any All Black pack made up of non-Crusaders. The front row isn’t bad and will hold up as long as Corey Flynn’s arms don’t break. Next to him are Franks and Franks. For the second row coach Blackadder can choose between Brad Thorn, Chris Jack, and Isaac Ross, every one an All Black. For the back row there’s Richie McCaw, Keiran Read, George Whitelock and Thomas Waldrom.

Who’s Thomas Waldrom you ask? For those of you who don’t know Waldrom, he led NZ in ball carries last year and was one of the top tacklers. Nicknamed Thomas the Tank, Waldrom doesn’t look like much but boy he can play. If he were active in any era other than the McCaw era, he would be an automatic starter for the ABs.

The Crusader backs are led by one Dan Carter and consist of three decent wings (Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Kade Poki), two very good fullbacks (Jared Payne and Colin Slade), an occasionally outstanding scrum-half (Andy Ellis), and two small but reliable centres (Tim Bateman and ?).

With 13 All Blacks in the team, every match against the Crusaders will be like a test match. Who can stop the Crusaders in 2010? We predict no one. No one at all. Barring unforeseen injuries we expect the Saders to win every game up to and including the Final. You might as well hand them the trophy now and starting preparing for the 3N.

Who else looks good in NZ? No one frankly. The Chiefs reckon they can go one better than their Finals loss to the Bulls. Good luck to them, but they’re dreaming. Expect some regression to the mean this year.

The Hurricanes know the clock is ticking and if they’re going to do it it’s now or never. It’ll be never.

The Blues think that by relieving Canterbury of NZ’s worst kicker, Stephen Brett, that somehow they will be able to fix their litany of woes.

The Highlanders are led by Jamie McIntosh, who made it clear during the off-season that he doesn’t want to be there, and Jimmy Cowan, who only shines when surrounded by the calming influence of All Black talent. And you Otagoans can start packing up the Ranfurly Shield. You won’t be holding on to that for long.

In Australia I expect the real competition will be between the Waratahs and the Brumbies. It will be tight and it will be fierce but I reckon a Giteau trumps a Barnes (just) and that the Brumbies will be the team to beat.

Historically the Reds couldn’t win a lottery even if they held all the tickets. But this year with new coach Ewen McKenzie and some promising Wallaby talent coming through (Will Genia, Quade Cooper), they should finish higher than the Force who are rebuilding (12 new players).

Incidentally, expect things to get interesting next year when the Melbourne franchise starts up. In case you hadn’t heard, the yet to be named Melbourne team will include up to 10 international players, hopefully Argentinian, but likely Kiwi.

Regarding South Africa I confess I’m somewhat uninformed. I’m aware that the Lions offered big money to attract Carlos Spencer. That will make the Lions entertaining but I doubt it will be a happy marriage. Teams built on mercenaries – no offense King Carlos – seldom go the distance.

Despite having the best flanker in the Republic in Heinrich Brüssow, the Cheetahs will compete ferociously for last place with the Lions and the Force.

The Stormers have lost JDV to Munster but have gained Bryan Habana and Jacque Fourie. These two gents are at the top of their game and should help keep the Stormers in the mix until the closing rounds of the season.

The Sharks are like the Hurricanes; long on talent but short on trophies. They nearly won the Currie Cup last year; they nearly won the Super 14 two years before that. This year they’ve signed some promising young talent but they have lost Francois Steyn. They will not beat the Bulls and the probably won’t beat the Stormers.

For my money you can’t go past the homegrown talent of the Bulls. They’ve lost Habana but they have a culture that breeds winners like Morne Steyne and Victor Matfield. With Fourie du Preez leading from behind the scrum they will be the best team in the Republic. They can’t win away but they can’t lose at home. If they’re able to stick to their tried and true game plan, they will easily make the play-offs.

Last year we predicted both the Crusaders and the Chiefs would make the play-offs, and they did. However we wrongly predicted that the Waratahs and Sharks would be good enough to be up there with them and they weren’t. The Tahs finished 5^th and the Sharks came a lowly 8^th. We were surprised by the strong performances of the Bulls and Hurricanes.

So how do we predict the last Super 14 will finish up? Just like this:

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes

A detailed fixtures list for the 2010 S14 tournament can be found here.

Super 14 Predictions (2009)

Over the last week we’ve had a few hundred hits on the post with my predictions for last year’s S14 tournament, so I thought I’d better gaze into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the coming season looks like. And for the record, we’re pretty darn accurate here at Rugby Asteroid. We picked the Crusaders to win at the start of last season and they did. However, we dropped the ball big time on the runners up. We expected the Sharks to finish 2nd but they came 3rd. Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

Our All Black Team of 2008

About this time of the year I pick my preferred All Black team on the basis of performance in the Super 14. I usually stick my list on the fridge where everyone can see it and have a good laugh. “You picked him?!”

I like to take a few risks which is why Anthony Tuitavake is on my team this year. If you haven’t seen him play, think of what you’d get if you crossed Christian Cullen with Ma’a Nonu. (And no, I don’t mean an injury-prone, out-of-control prima donna.) Tuitavake has great pace and the ability to get defenders going in two directions. He’s a bit of a nimbler version of Isaia Toeava. (Note: Last year I picked Isaia Toeava who had a fantastic Super 14 season but then wilted on the international stage.)

I don’t necessarily pick the best player for each spot, but the best for the larger combinations that exist in my head. If you don’t like my choices, feel free to send in your own choice. Just hit the “Leave a reply” button below.

15. Mils Muliaina (reserve: Leon McDonald)

14. Sitiveni Sivivatu (Lelia Masaga)

13. Anthony Tuitavake (Sean Maitland)

12. Stephen Brett (Conrad Smith)

11. Josevata Rokocoko (David Smith)

10. Dan Carter (Stephen Donald)

9. Brendon Leonard (Andy Ellis)

8. Rodney So’oialo (Mose Tuiali’i)

7. Richie McCaw (Chris Masoe)

6. Jerry Collins (Kieran Read)

5. Ali Williams (Ross Filipo)

4. Jason Eaton (Brad Thorn)

3. Greg Somerville (?)

2. Andrew Hore (Keven Mealamu)

1. Tony Woodcock (John Afoa)

Notable omissions:

• Isaia Toeava – long on potential, short on BMT
• Neemia Tialata – too slow and a bit over-rated
• Piri Weepu – I love Weepu, but he’s too inconsistent for the test stage
• Nic Evans – he’s good, but Stephen Donald is a match-winner and deserves a chance
• Ma’a Nonu – he’s a great tackle-breaker, but he takes too much on himself; he doesn’t work well with others
• Casey Laulala – he just hasn’t been as brilliant as he was last year
• anybody from the Highlanders – I was actually thinking of Jimmy Cowan until a week ago

This dream team consists of 5 Crusaders players, 4 Hurricances, 3 Blues and 3 Chiefs.

And Then There Were Seven

In what is becoming a distinguishing feature of the Super 14, three of the top four positions are still up for grabs in the final round. Amazingly, with just one game to be played by each team, half of the league has a chance of making the cut. Something like this happens almost every year.

Last year in final four weren’t decided until the very final match of the tournament when the Bulls pulled off a miracle beating the Reds 92 to 3 propelling themselves from 6^th to 2^nd place. In the first year of the Super 14 (2006), something like 11 or 12 teams had a statistical shot at making the semi-finals with three rounds to go. That was the first year the Bulls showed their knack for pulling rabbits out of last-round hats which they did by scoring exactly the 33 points they needed in their final game to take the Sharks’ spot in the semis.

Surely the rivalry in the Super 14 is one of the bright spots in SANZAR Rugby. One of the great things about this competition is that any team can get up and beat any other on the day. Just ask the Chiefs. A few weeks ago they beat the league leaders. Yesterday they were beaten by the wooden-spooners. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Highlanders to get up and snatch a win against the Crusaders in Christchurch next week (though I wouldn’t bet on it). The Lions may even damage the Stormers’ chances in Jo’burg (but I wouldn’t bet on that either).

Here’s how the final round is shaping up for the seven teams that still have a chance of making it through:

1. Crusaders (currently with 52 points) v Highlanders (Christchurch). Expect Robbie Deans to rest his stars for the last game against the Highlanders. The Crusaders have nothing to play for and this is a good chance for the second stringers to get a run. After yesterday’s near-fiasco against the Reds the reserves have a lot to prove. Saders should win.

2. Hurricanes (40 points) v Blues (Auckland): While attention has been focused elsewhere, the Hurricances have been quietly getting the job done these past few weeks winning four of their past five. Yet they still need to win against the Blues to secure a spot. If they lose or draw their fate will be decided by other teams. For years the Blues had the goods on the Canes, but not lately. The Canes have won their last three match-ups and have given the Blues two good hidings in Auckland. Expect them to do it again.

3. Waratahs (39 points) v Reds (Brisbane): Amazingly, the Reds played better after Latham left the field injured yesterday. Perhaps this was because the new Wallaby coach was sitting on the sidelines. Expect a similarly fierce contest when Queenlanders and New South Welshman meet next week. There’s no way the Reds will lay down and let the Tahs waltz through to the semis without a fight. That said, the Tahs will win.

4. Stormers (37 points) v Lions (Jo’burg): Let’s face it – the only way the Lions beat the Chiefs yesterday was by playing dirty and kicking 100%. The Stormers will win.

5. Sharks (37 points) v Chiefs (Durban): The Sharks finally managed a much-needed win against the Cheetahs arresting a three game losing streak. But let’s be real – the Sharks haven’t beaten a top six team in two months. This has not been their year. Given the mismatch in the Stormers game, the Sharks will be hoping the Reds can beat the Tahs in the earlier match.

6. Blues (36 points) v Canes (Auckland): The Blues beat the lowly Highlanders yesterday and suddenly the diet in Auckland has changed from crucified rugby player to foamy cups of wishful thinking. Honestly, the journalists in this town are like stockbrokers, they make money whether you’re up or down. As long as there is grist to grind they’ll grind it. So let this outsider come in with a little dose of reality – “fellas, you’ve not done real well against good teams this year – you’re just one win and four losses with another loss on the way.”

7. Chiefs (34 points) v Sharks (Durban): I heard on the radio that Stephen Donald had been taken to hospital after their shock loss to the Lions owing to some neck injury. If he’s out, the Chiefs have no chance of beating the Sharks in Durban next week and their season is already over. If he’s fit this will be the best match of the last round, unless of course, the Blues beat the Canes or the Tahs beat the Reds, in which case, this game will count for nothing. My head says Sharks, but my heart, liver and pancreas say “go Chiefs!”

Super 14 Final Four Predictions: Three Kiwi Teams in the Semis!

It’s that time of the Super 14 season where sports-fans are picking their final four and, as usual, the competition is deliciously intense! With just two rounds remaining, six teams are vying for three of the four semi-final places. (Of course, we need not mention that the Crusaders are sitting pretty on top of the ladder ten points clear of everyone else.) Ranked in order of their tournament points, the aspiring six teams are: Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers, Chiefs, Sharks and Blues. To make the final two rounds even more exciting, there are three games where these aspirants are playing each other. These games are…

Round 13: Stormers vs Waratahs (in Cape Town)

Round 14: Blues vs Hurricanes (in Auckland), and Sharks vs Chiefs (Durban)

Who will make it through? Who will join the current S14 champs for an early holiday season? We bring you not one, but three four predictions…

Jim Kaye of the Dominion Post (Wellington) picks: Crusaders, Tahs, Canes, and Sharks.

Dylan Cleaver, of the Sunday Herald (NZ), has the following top 4 in his power rankings of 4 May: Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes and Waratahs.

Pick & Go (Team Rankings after 12 rounds): Crusaders, Sharks, Canes and Stormers.

And who do we pick? Wait for it…

Here at Rugby Asteroid – just to be different – we’re going out on a long thin limb and we’re going to predict three Kiwi teams in the finals: Crusaders, Stormers, Chiefs and Hurricanes.

I don’t see the Stormers losing their last two games at home, which is bad news for the Tahs. The Stormers have probably the longest winning streak in the tournament right now – they are peaking at just the right time.

The Chiefs will be coming off a stinging defeat in Perth – I don’t see them losing to the Lions next week. Their biggest game will come in the final round against the Sharks in Durban. On paper, you’d have to favour the Sharks playing in front of their fanatical home crowd. But this year’s Sharks team lacks the character of previous years and I have a nagging suspicion they will wilt under the offensive firepower of the highly motivated Chiefs.

I fully expect the Hurricanes to beat the Force in wild and windy Wellington this Friday. But it will be a real contest for them at Mt Eden the week after that, not just for bragging rights, but for AB jerseys. This round 14 match-up is a tough one to call, but I think the Canes could triumph. The Blues have had an erratic season, their home town is crucifying them on a daily basis, and their coach has already packed his bags for Australia.

The Waratahs have a similar problem with Ewen McKenzie being axed. Having a coach who has nothing to play for can’t be a healthy thing for a team. I predict a cataclysmic ending for the Tahs; the Stormers will munch them in Cape Town and the Reds in Brisbane will play like it’s a State of Origin match.

Of course, we could be wrong about all this. If you’ve got a different pick for the final four, hit the Comments link below and let us know.

The Corey Flynn Show

For those of you who didn’t see the Blues-Crusaders clash on Friday night, you missed quite a spectacle. I’m not just talking about the exciting broken rugby play of the Blues or the rock-wall defense of the Saders, I’m talking about the one, the only, Mr Corey Flynn, who was both the best and worst player on the field.

What did he do? What didn’t he do! He did it all.

His first contribution was a brilliant little try made after receiving an offload from Keiran Reid. At first I thought I was watching Richie McCaw – stocky white boy makes blazing run up the middle – but no, it was Corey Flynn, legs pumping for all they were worth! It was the kind of run that hookers only do once in a long while and Corey did it twice on the night.

Two minutes after that first try he went from hero to zero missing a tackle he should’ve made. This gifted the Blues their first try of the evening. Then back to hero with his second try which was even better than the first.

He got a couple of impressive penalties the result of dubious decisions made under the high ball. In the first one he played the man and not the ball. In the second one he really did try to play the ball but took out the man regardless. It was a bit comical. Just picture a grand piano falling on Wile E. Coyote. The commentators said it probably wasn’t malicious, just clumsy. Well Clumsy Corey had 10 minutes to think about that one in the sin bin.

Here’s what Planet Rugby had to say about Mr Flynn:

Man of the match: All-action hero/villain/hero/villain/hero Corey Flynn!

Moment of the match: Flynn’s second try, the Crusaders’ third, was wonderful to watch

Villain of the match: Two high tackles – one of them as cynical an obstruction as you could see – means the villain is: Corey Flynn!

Take a bow Mr Flynn! You gave us a memorable performance.

PS: Richie McCaw had another brilliant game as did Keiran Reid and Leon McDonald for the Saders. Kade Poki made a brilliant try-saving tackle that should go into the highlight reel. For the Blues Nick Evans’ boot kept them in the game all night long and the brilliant centre Anthony Tuitavake fully justified Nucifora’s decision to bench Toeva.