Super 14 Predictions (2010)

At the start of every season we at Rugby Asteroid like to stick our necks out and make predictions. Unlike what you might find at some of the more fancy rugby websites, these predictions are not made on considered assessments of form, but are rather based on who we like at any given moment.

And who do we like more in 2010 than the Crusaders?

Last year was probably the worst start in Sader history. With eight key players missing they lost 4 of their first 5 games before clawing their way back into contention. Although they didn’t make the Finals, having lost their semi-final to the Bulls in Pretoria, in our view they were the second-best team in the league by the end of the season. And look who’s come back/joined the side since then!

The entire pack, from Franks to Waldrom, could out-muscle any All Black pack made up of non-Crusaders. The front row isn’t bad and will hold up as long as Corey Flynn’s arms don’t break. Next to him are Franks and Franks. For the second row coach Blackadder can choose between Brad Thorn, Chris Jack, and Isaac Ross, every one an All Black. For the back row there’s Richie McCaw, Keiran Read, George Whitelock and Thomas Waldrom.

Who’s Thomas Waldrom you ask? For those of you who don’t know Waldrom, he led NZ in ball carries last year and was one of the top tacklers. Nicknamed Thomas the Tank, Waldrom doesn’t look like much but boy he can play. If he were active in any era other than the McCaw era, he would be an automatic starter for the ABs.

The Crusader backs are led by one Dan Carter and consist of three decent wings (Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Kade Poki), two very good fullbacks (Jared Payne and Colin Slade), an occasionally outstanding scrum-half (Andy Ellis), and two small but reliable centres (Tim Bateman and ?).

With 13 All Blacks in the team, every match against the Crusaders will be like a test match. Who can stop the Crusaders in 2010? We predict no one. No one at all. Barring unforeseen injuries we expect the Saders to win every game up to and including the Final. You might as well hand them the trophy now and starting preparing for the 3N.

Who else looks good in NZ? No one frankly. The Chiefs reckon they can go one better than their Finals loss to the Bulls. Good luck to them, but they’re dreaming. Expect some regression to the mean this year.

The Hurricanes know the clock is ticking and if they’re going to do it it’s now or never. It’ll be never.

The Blues think that by relieving Canterbury of NZ’s worst kicker, Stephen Brett, that somehow they will be able to fix their litany of woes.

The Highlanders are led by Jamie McIntosh, who made it clear during the off-season that he doesn’t want to be there, and Jimmy Cowan, who only shines when surrounded by the calming influence of All Black talent. And you Otagoans can start packing up the Ranfurly Shield. You won’t be holding on to that for long.

In Australia I expect the real competition will be between the Waratahs and the Brumbies. It will be tight and it will be fierce but I reckon a Giteau trumps a Barnes (just) and that the Brumbies will be the team to beat.

Historically the Reds couldn’t win a lottery even if they held all the tickets. But this year with new coach Ewen McKenzie and some promising Wallaby talent coming through (Will Genia, Quade Cooper), they should finish higher than the Force who are rebuilding (12 new players).

Incidentally, expect things to get interesting next year when the Melbourne franchise starts up. In case you hadn’t heard, the yet to be named Melbourne team will include up to 10 international players, hopefully Argentinian, but likely Kiwi.

Regarding South Africa I confess I’m somewhat uninformed. I’m aware that the Lions offered big money to attract Carlos Spencer. That will make the Lions entertaining but I doubt it will be a happy marriage. Teams built on mercenaries – no offense King Carlos – seldom go the distance.

Despite having the best flanker in the Republic in Heinrich Brüssow, the Cheetahs will compete ferociously for last place with the Lions and the Force.

The Stormers have lost JDV to Munster but have gained Bryan Habana and Jacque Fourie. These two gents are at the top of their game and should help keep the Stormers in the mix until the closing rounds of the season.

The Sharks are like the Hurricanes; long on talent but short on trophies. They nearly won the Currie Cup last year; they nearly won the Super 14 two years before that. This year they’ve signed some promising young talent but they have lost Francois Steyn. They will not beat the Bulls and the probably won’t beat the Stormers.

For my money you can’t go past the homegrown talent of the Bulls. They’ve lost Habana but they have a culture that breeds winners like Morne Steyne and Victor Matfield. With Fourie du Preez leading from behind the scrum they will be the best team in the Republic. They can’t win away but they can’t lose at home. If they’re able to stick to their tried and true game plan, they will easily make the play-offs.

Last year we predicted both the Crusaders and the Chiefs would make the play-offs, and they did. However we wrongly predicted that the Waratahs and Sharks would be good enough to be up there with them and they weren’t. The Tahs finished 5^th and the Sharks came a lowly 8^th. We were surprised by the strong performances of the Bulls and Hurricanes.

So how do we predict the last Super 14 will finish up? Just like this:

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes

A detailed fixtures list for the 2010 S14 tournament can be found here.

Crusader Autopsy

Prior to the start of the season we predicted Richie McCaw would lead a depleted Crusader side to the playoffs in 2009. Well Richie won’t be leading anyone anywhere for a while yet. He’s broken, as is the entire club. Richie went down in the 31st minute of yesterday’s loss to the Highlanders a crippled symbol of the club’s gloomy future.

The Saders have lost three out of their first four games. That’s more losses than they had in the entire 2008 season. Only once before have the Saders lost three in a row in a regular Super season, and that was at the very beginning of the very first season in 1996. That year they finished 12th out of 12 teams.

The scary thing is they haven’t yet played any of the teams currently on top of the table.

If you want to know why the team is struggling, just look at the list of players who were in the championship side last season. I’ve highlighted those players who remain active…

Super 14 Predictions (2009)

Over the last week we’ve had a few hundred hits on the post with my predictions for last year’s S14 tournament, so I thought I’d better gaze into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the coming season looks like. And for the record, we’re pretty darn accurate here at Rugby Asteroid. We picked the Crusaders to win at the start of last season and they did. However, we dropped the ball big time on the runners up. We expected the Sharks to finish 2nd but they came 3rd. Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

Our All Black Team of 2008

About this time of the year I pick my preferred All Black team on the basis of performance in the Super 14. I usually stick my list on the fridge where everyone can see it and have a good laugh. “You picked him?!”

I like to take a few risks which is why Anthony Tuitavake is on my team this year. If you haven’t seen him play, think of what you’d get if you crossed Christian Cullen with Ma’a Nonu. (And no, I don’t mean an injury-prone, out-of-control prima donna.) Tuitavake has great pace and the ability to get defenders going in two directions. He’s a bit of a nimbler version of Isaia Toeava. (Note: Last year I picked Isaia Toeava who had a fantastic Super 14 season but then wilted on the international stage.)

I don’t necessarily pick the best player for each spot, but the best for the larger combinations that exist in my head. If you don’t like my choices, feel free to send in your own choice. Just hit the “Leave a reply” button below.

15. Mils Muliaina (reserve: Leon McDonald)

14. Sitiveni Sivivatu (Lelia Masaga)

13. Anthony Tuitavake (Sean Maitland)

12. Stephen Brett (Conrad Smith)

11. Josevata Rokocoko (David Smith)

10. Dan Carter (Stephen Donald)

9. Brendon Leonard (Andy Ellis)

8. Rodney So’oialo (Mose Tuiali’i)

7. Richie McCaw (Chris Masoe)

6. Jerry Collins (Kieran Read)

5. Ali Williams (Ross Filipo)

4. Jason Eaton (Brad Thorn)

3. Greg Somerville (?)

2. Andrew Hore (Keven Mealamu)

1. Tony Woodcock (John Afoa)

Notable omissions:

• Isaia Toeava – long on potential, short on BMT
• Neemia Tialata – too slow and a bit over-rated
• Piri Weepu – I love Weepu, but he’s too inconsistent for the test stage
• Nic Evans – he’s good, but Stephen Donald is a match-winner and deserves a chance
• Ma’a Nonu – he’s a great tackle-breaker, but he takes too much on himself; he doesn’t work well with others
• Casey Laulala – he just hasn’t been as brilliant as he was last year
• anybody from the Highlanders – I was actually thinking of Jimmy Cowan until a week ago

This dream team consists of 5 Crusaders players, 4 Hurricances, 3 Blues and 3 Chiefs.

And Then There Were Seven

In what is becoming a distinguishing feature of the Super 14, three of the top four positions are still up for grabs in the final round. Amazingly, with just one game to be played by each team, half of the league has a chance of making the cut. Something like this happens almost every year.

Last year in final four weren’t decided until the very final match of the tournament when the Bulls pulled off a miracle beating the Reds 92 to 3 propelling themselves from 6^th to 2^nd place. In the first year of the Super 14 (2006), something like 11 or 12 teams had a statistical shot at making the semi-finals with three rounds to go. That was the first year the Bulls showed their knack for pulling rabbits out of last-round hats which they did by scoring exactly the 33 points they needed in their final game to take the Sharks’ spot in the semis.

Surely the rivalry in the Super 14 is one of the bright spots in SANZAR Rugby. One of the great things about this competition is that any team can get up and beat any other on the day. Just ask the Chiefs. A few weeks ago they beat the league leaders. Yesterday they were beaten by the wooden-spooners. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Highlanders to get up and snatch a win against the Crusaders in Christchurch next week (though I wouldn’t bet on it). The Lions may even damage the Stormers’ chances in Jo’burg (but I wouldn’t bet on that either).

Here’s how the final round is shaping up for the seven teams that still have a chance of making it through:

1. Crusaders (currently with 52 points) v Highlanders (Christchurch). Expect Robbie Deans to rest his stars for the last game against the Highlanders. The Crusaders have nothing to play for and this is a good chance for the second stringers to get a run. After yesterday’s near-fiasco against the Reds the reserves have a lot to prove. Saders should win.

2. Hurricanes (40 points) v Blues (Auckland): While attention has been focused elsewhere, the Hurricances have been quietly getting the job done these past few weeks winning four of their past five. Yet they still need to win against the Blues to secure a spot. If they lose or draw their fate will be decided by other teams. For years the Blues had the goods on the Canes, but not lately. The Canes have won their last three match-ups and have given the Blues two good hidings in Auckland. Expect them to do it again.

3. Waratahs (39 points) v Reds (Brisbane): Amazingly, the Reds played better after Latham left the field injured yesterday. Perhaps this was because the new Wallaby coach was sitting on the sidelines. Expect a similarly fierce contest when Queenlanders and New South Welshman meet next week. There’s no way the Reds will lay down and let the Tahs waltz through to the semis without a fight. That said, the Tahs will win.

4. Stormers (37 points) v Lions (Jo’burg): Let’s face it – the only way the Lions beat the Chiefs yesterday was by playing dirty and kicking 100%. The Stormers will win.

5. Sharks (37 points) v Chiefs (Durban): The Sharks finally managed a much-needed win against the Cheetahs arresting a three game losing streak. But let’s be real – the Sharks haven’t beaten a top six team in two months. This has not been their year. Given the mismatch in the Stormers game, the Sharks will be hoping the Reds can beat the Tahs in the earlier match.

6. Blues (36 points) v Canes (Auckland): The Blues beat the lowly Highlanders yesterday and suddenly the diet in Auckland has changed from crucified rugby player to foamy cups of wishful thinking. Honestly, the journalists in this town are like stockbrokers, they make money whether you’re up or down. As long as there is grist to grind they’ll grind it. So let this outsider come in with a little dose of reality – “fellas, you’ve not done real well against good teams this year – you’re just one win and four losses with another loss on the way.”

7. Chiefs (34 points) v Sharks (Durban): I heard on the radio that Stephen Donald had been taken to hospital after their shock loss to the Lions owing to some neck injury. If he’s out, the Chiefs have no chance of beating the Sharks in Durban next week and their season is already over. If he’s fit this will be the best match of the last round, unless of course, the Blues beat the Canes or the Tahs beat the Reds, in which case, this game will count for nothing. My head says Sharks, but my heart, liver and pancreas say “go Chiefs!”

Those Sneaky Sharks

It seems the boys from Durban are prepared to do whatever it takes to win. Denied a championship in the dying minutes of last year’s S14 Final they are leaving nothing to chance this year. Knowing that Kiwi players have difficulty handling the French they imported the talented Monsieur Michelak from France. (If there are any other northern hemisphere players in this tournament I don’t know who they are.) They also hired the Tongan thug Epi Taione who is missing the next 6 weeks for a bout of headbutting. They fielded 16 players in their game against the Queensland Reds. And they cynically interfered with a try in the dying minutes of their game against the Hurricanes. These dubious tactics have paid dividends, for the Sharks are currently sitting second on the table.

But if there’s any natural justice in the world of rugby, then wrongs will surely be righted in the Tour from Hell that the Sharks have just commenced. Look at their schedule;

– this weekend it’s the, ahem, inform Highlanders at the House of Pain

– then it’s the increasingly desperate Brumbies in Canberra

– followed by the resurging Waratahs in Sydney

– and finally it’s the unbeatable Crusaders in Christchurch

Our prediction? The Sharks will go home with at least two big fat losses and maybe even three. They will then find themselves in a ferocious fight for a good play-off spot with about six other teams. That said, they will then win their last two games at home and finish in the final four regardless. For better or worse, the Sharks usually do.