Who Can Stop the Stormers?

Earlier today Graham Henry said the Stormers were the in form side of this year’s Super 14. Having just watched them demolish the Chiefs, 49-15, it’s hard to disagree.

Think about this, the Stormers have lost just twice this season, and their biggest loss was just 2 points. But their wins. Oh my – they’ve torn apart the Tahs, the Canes and the Highlanders. Last week they silenced a resurgent Blues side and tonight they effectively ended the Chief’s season.

If defense wins championships, the Stormers are shoe-ins. Their defense is the best in the league by a long mile. Prior to tonight’s game they had conceded just 96 points. The next best team – the Crusaders – had let in 161 points.

This is a completely different Stormers team from previous season. Schalk Burger is just one of many forwards who are playing with discipline and smarts. Yes, I said Schalk Burger. (Here’s a message for Heinrich Brussow. Schalk wants his Springbok jersey back.) Andres Bekker has suddenly become the best lock in South Africa. He’s tall, mobile, and his work ethic is outstanding. Leibenberg doesn’t look any more mobile than any other hooker, but looks can be deceiving.

The Stormers backs aren’t too bad either. Jacque Fourie must be one of the top 3 outside centres in the world. Peter Grant is a superb goal kicker. Bryan Habana has slotted right in to his new side.

What really impressed me about how they’ve played in New Zealand is how well they have recycled the ball. They are one of the few teams to exploit the new rules regarding the breakdown. Their offense is relentless. They run opponents ragged and are very good at taking care of the pill.

Kind of like how the Crusaders used to be.

The Stormers’ season is about to get a whole lot tougher. Next week they play the Reds in Brisbane, then it’s the Saders in Cape Town. Their last game is against the Bulls.

But if they continue to play like they did tonight, then the Super 14 Final on May 29 will be in Cape Town. No doubt about it.

18 Try Record in Jo-Burg

The Chiefs defeated the Lions 72-65 last night in Jo’burg. Both teams scored 9 tries. Unfortunately the game wasn’t shown on Sky so I haven’t seen it, but from what I’ve read here’s how it panned out: The Lions got up 25-17 points before the Chiefs poured on 48 unanswered points. Then the Lions added 40 points of their own. In the end the difference was the kickers. The Lions’ Earl Rose kicked 9 of 12 while Stephen Donald stepped up big time for the Chiefs to nail 12 of 12. Add in the try he also scored and Donald ended up with 32 points.

Here are the highlights:

– record highest combined points in a Super Rugby match (137)

– record highest points scored on the road (72 to the Chiefs)

– hat-tricks were scored by both Richard Kahui of the Chiefs and Wandile Mjekevu of the Lions

One wonders what coach Ian Foster is going to say to the Chiefs after this. “Well done guys for winning two on the road in South Africa. But let’s not let in 9 tries ever again.”

Muliaina Dominates S14 Final Speech-making Contest

The S14 season closed with an unexpectedly one-sided contest over the weekend as Chief’s captain Mils Muliaina won the post-match captain’s speech in emphatic style.

Muliaina was in fine form scoring points seemingly at will with his gracious acceptance of the outcome, his praise for the refs and, of course, the victorious team. His articulation was clear and his emotion controlled in what was a truly remarkable display of determination given the earlier match result.

Super 14 Semi-Final Predictions (2009)

What another brilliant finale to a fiercely-fought season! The last game of the regular season finished just a few hours ago with only one point separating the first and sixth-best teams in the league. Commiserations to all the Sharks fans out there who must be heart-broken after their team came oh so close. Another few minutes and a drop goal would’ve put your team in the final four.

At the start of the season we predicted the Chiefs and the Crusaders to make the final four and they did. We also predicted the Tahs would be the best of the Aussie teams and they were.

We predicted the Bulls would have the measure of the Sharks and they did, but we also predicted the Sharks would finish higher on the table, yet they didn’t.

We predicted the Canes would lose to the better teams and they did, going down to the Tahs, Bulls, Sharks and Chiefs. But they also notched up some impressive wins over the Saders and the Brumbies.

Just four teams remain. Here are our predictions for the semi-finals.

On Friday the Hurricanes meet the Chiefs in Waikato. This is a rematch of the game they played just last weekend. In that one the Canes were soundly beaten by Stephen Donald.

History favours the Canes in this derby – they usually smash the Chiefs. But the Chiefs are on a winning roll having lost just once in their last ten outings.

My only question is whether the Chiefs have the BMT to deliver the goods on the day. They have little finals experience, but they have many experienced players. Led by the brilliant Mils Muliaini, they should be able to shut down the Canes running game. I expect the Chiefs to win by 6.

On Saturday the 2008 champions meet the 2007 champions in Pretoria. Earlier in the season we suggested that the Sharks were the pretenders to the Crusaders’ throne but the Bulls are just as keen for a change in dynasty.

Since the middle of the 2008 season the Bulls have been in phenomenal form losing just 3 of their last 17 games. They are the winningest side in Super Rugby over the past 14 months.

That said, history favours the Crusaders with the men in red beating the men in blue 11 times to 3 in Super Rugby matches. The Crusaders won a tight game in Christchurch this season and blew the Bulls out of the water in Pretoria last season. Can they do it again this weekend? You better believe it.

The Crusaders had a horror start to the 2009 season but have won 7 of their last 8 games. Significantly, this young side has improved with every game. They play boring low-scoring rugby, but it’s effective. Their red wall is the best defense in the league. Provided the erratic Stephen Brett doesn’t kick the game away, I expect the Crusaders to win by 2.

And what of the 2009 grand final? I predict the last match of the season will be a rematch of the very first match of the season – Crusaders v. Chiefs.

Postscript: Far be it from us to toot our own horns, but last year we correctly called the winners of both the semi-finals and the grand final.

Super 14 Predictions (2009)

Over the last week we’ve had a few hundred hits on the post with my predictions for last year’s S14 tournament, so I thought I’d better gaze into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the coming season looks like. And for the record, we’re pretty darn accurate here at Rugby Asteroid. We picked the Crusaders to win at the start of last season and they did. However, we dropped the ball big time on the runners up. We expected the Sharks to finish 2nd but they came 3rd. Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

The Dan and Donald Show

So Stephen Donald finally gets his chance to show his qualities and is starting at No. 10 this Saturday with Dan Carter moved to inside centre. This is the same combination that turned the game around at Suncorp Stadium a few weeks ago. Matt Giteau reckons the move “could backfire.” Yeah, and theoretically it “could snow” this weekend in Hong Kong.

Giteau’s shortsightedness is no doubt a result of dapper Dan’s dazzling displays. But one thing few non-Kiwis realize, is that there is more than one quality play-maker in New Zealand. As we have argued before in these posts, Stephen Donald is a super-star in the making. The only reason the world has not yet heard of him is because he’s been playing under-study to the greatest pivot currently playing the game.

Donald has all the attributes that make for a great No.10 – he’s cunning, a phenomenal kicker, and he’s a fearless competitor. He’s played just five tests for the ABs and his winning record at the national level is 100%. (Incidentally, Richie McCaw also enjoys a 100% winning record this season.) In the 3N decider last month he showed he can work well with Dan Carter on his outside. Together the two of them helped turn a 10 point deficit into a dramatic victory.

At Brisbane Donald showed he had BMT. On Saturday he will be rewarded with his first start. The forecast here in Hong Kong shows it will be humid and 29. Could this be “Brisbane Part II” for the Waikato star?

Our All Black Team of 2008

About this time of the year I pick my preferred All Black team on the basis of performance in the Super 14. I usually stick my list on the fridge where everyone can see it and have a good laugh. “You picked him?!”

I like to take a few risks which is why Anthony Tuitavake is on my team this year. If you haven’t seen him play, think of what you’d get if you crossed Christian Cullen with Ma’a Nonu. (And no, I don’t mean an injury-prone, out-of-control prima donna.) Tuitavake has great pace and the ability to get defenders going in two directions. He’s a bit of a nimbler version of Isaia Toeava. (Note: Last year I picked Isaia Toeava who had a fantastic Super 14 season but then wilted on the international stage.)

I don’t necessarily pick the best player for each spot, but the best for the larger combinations that exist in my head. If you don’t like my choices, feel free to send in your own choice. Just hit the “Leave a reply” button below.

15. Mils Muliaina (reserve: Leon McDonald)

14. Sitiveni Sivivatu (Lelia Masaga)

13. Anthony Tuitavake (Sean Maitland)

12. Stephen Brett (Conrad Smith)

11. Josevata Rokocoko (David Smith)

10. Dan Carter (Stephen Donald)

9. Brendon Leonard (Andy Ellis)

8. Rodney So’oialo (Mose Tuiali’i)

7. Richie McCaw (Chris Masoe)

6. Jerry Collins (Kieran Read)

5. Ali Williams (Ross Filipo)

4. Jason Eaton (Brad Thorn)

3. Greg Somerville (?)

2. Andrew Hore (Keven Mealamu)

1. Tony Woodcock (John Afoa)

Notable omissions:

• Isaia Toeava – long on potential, short on BMT
• Neemia Tialata – too slow and a bit over-rated
• Piri Weepu – I love Weepu, but he’s too inconsistent for the test stage
• Nic Evans – he’s good, but Stephen Donald is a match-winner and deserves a chance
• Ma’a Nonu – he’s a great tackle-breaker, but he takes too much on himself; he doesn’t work well with others
• Casey Laulala – he just hasn’t been as brilliant as he was last year
• anybody from the Highlanders – I was actually thinking of Jimmy Cowan until a week ago

This dream team consists of 5 Crusaders players, 4 Hurricances, 3 Blues and 3 Chiefs.

And Then There Were Seven

In what is becoming a distinguishing feature of the Super 14, three of the top four positions are still up for grabs in the final round. Amazingly, with just one game to be played by each team, half of the league has a chance of making the cut. Something like this happens almost every year.

Last year in final four weren’t decided until the very final match of the tournament when the Bulls pulled off a miracle beating the Reds 92 to 3 propelling themselves from 6^th to 2^nd place. In the first year of the Super 14 (2006), something like 11 or 12 teams had a statistical shot at making the semi-finals with three rounds to go. That was the first year the Bulls showed their knack for pulling rabbits out of last-round hats which they did by scoring exactly the 33 points they needed in their final game to take the Sharks’ spot in the semis.

Surely the rivalry in the Super 14 is one of the bright spots in SANZAR Rugby. One of the great things about this competition is that any team can get up and beat any other on the day. Just ask the Chiefs. A few weeks ago they beat the league leaders. Yesterday they were beaten by the wooden-spooners. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Highlanders to get up and snatch a win against the Crusaders in Christchurch next week (though I wouldn’t bet on it). The Lions may even damage the Stormers’ chances in Jo’burg (but I wouldn’t bet on that either).

Here’s how the final round is shaping up for the seven teams that still have a chance of making it through:

1. Crusaders (currently with 52 points) v Highlanders (Christchurch). Expect Robbie Deans to rest his stars for the last game against the Highlanders. The Crusaders have nothing to play for and this is a good chance for the second stringers to get a run. After yesterday’s near-fiasco against the Reds the reserves have a lot to prove. Saders should win.

2. Hurricanes (40 points) v Blues (Auckland): While attention has been focused elsewhere, the Hurricances have been quietly getting the job done these past few weeks winning four of their past five. Yet they still need to win against the Blues to secure a spot. If they lose or draw their fate will be decided by other teams. For years the Blues had the goods on the Canes, but not lately. The Canes have won their last three match-ups and have given the Blues two good hidings in Auckland. Expect them to do it again.

3. Waratahs (39 points) v Reds (Brisbane): Amazingly, the Reds played better after Latham left the field injured yesterday. Perhaps this was because the new Wallaby coach was sitting on the sidelines. Expect a similarly fierce contest when Queenlanders and New South Welshman meet next week. There’s no way the Reds will lay down and let the Tahs waltz through to the semis without a fight. That said, the Tahs will win.

4. Stormers (37 points) v Lions (Jo’burg): Let’s face it – the only way the Lions beat the Chiefs yesterday was by playing dirty and kicking 100%. The Stormers will win.

5. Sharks (37 points) v Chiefs (Durban): The Sharks finally managed a much-needed win against the Cheetahs arresting a three game losing streak. But let’s be real – the Sharks haven’t beaten a top six team in two months. This has not been their year. Given the mismatch in the Stormers game, the Sharks will be hoping the Reds can beat the Tahs in the earlier match.

6. Blues (36 points) v Canes (Auckland): The Blues beat the lowly Highlanders yesterday and suddenly the diet in Auckland has changed from crucified rugby player to foamy cups of wishful thinking. Honestly, the journalists in this town are like stockbrokers, they make money whether you’re up or down. As long as there is grist to grind they’ll grind it. So let this outsider come in with a little dose of reality – “fellas, you’ve not done real well against good teams this year – you’re just one win and four losses with another loss on the way.”

7. Chiefs (34 points) v Sharks (Durban): I heard on the radio that Stephen Donald had been taken to hospital after their shock loss to the Lions owing to some neck injury. If he’s out, the Chiefs have no chance of beating the Sharks in Durban next week and their season is already over. If he’s fit this will be the best match of the last round, unless of course, the Blues beat the Canes or the Tahs beat the Reds, in which case, this game will count for nothing. My head says Sharks, but my heart, liver and pancreas say “go Chiefs!”

Super 14 Final Four Predictions: Three Kiwi Teams in the Semis!

It’s that time of the Super 14 season where sports-fans are picking their final four and, as usual, the competition is deliciously intense! With just two rounds remaining, six teams are vying for three of the four semi-final places. (Of course, we need not mention that the Crusaders are sitting pretty on top of the ladder ten points clear of everyone else.) Ranked in order of their tournament points, the aspiring six teams are: Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers, Chiefs, Sharks and Blues. To make the final two rounds even more exciting, there are three games where these aspirants are playing each other. These games are…

Round 13: Stormers vs Waratahs (in Cape Town)

Round 14: Blues vs Hurricanes (in Auckland), and Sharks vs Chiefs (Durban)

Who will make it through? Who will join the current S14 champs for an early holiday season? We bring you not one, but three four predictions…

Jim Kaye of the Dominion Post (Wellington) picks: Crusaders, Tahs, Canes, and Sharks.

Dylan Cleaver, of the Sunday Herald (NZ), has the following top 4 in his power rankings of 4 May: Crusaders, Stormers, Hurricanes and Waratahs.

Pick & Go (Team Rankings after 12 rounds): Crusaders, Sharks, Canes and Stormers.

And who do we pick? Wait for it…

Here at Rugby Asteroid – just to be different – we’re going out on a long thin limb and we’re going to predict three Kiwi teams in the finals: Crusaders, Stormers, Chiefs and Hurricanes.

I don’t see the Stormers losing their last two games at home, which is bad news for the Tahs. The Stormers have probably the longest winning streak in the tournament right now – they are peaking at just the right time.

The Chiefs will be coming off a stinging defeat in Perth – I don’t see them losing to the Lions next week. Their biggest game will come in the final round against the Sharks in Durban. On paper, you’d have to favour the Sharks playing in front of their fanatical home crowd. But this year’s Sharks team lacks the character of previous years and I have a nagging suspicion they will wilt under the offensive firepower of the highly motivated Chiefs.

I fully expect the Hurricanes to beat the Force in wild and windy Wellington this Friday. But it will be a real contest for them at Mt Eden the week after that, not just for bragging rights, but for AB jerseys. This round 14 match-up is a tough one to call, but I think the Canes could triumph. The Blues have had an erratic season, their home town is crucifying them on a daily basis, and their coach has already packed his bags for Australia.

The Waratahs have a similar problem with Ewen McKenzie being axed. Having a coach who has nothing to play for can’t be a healthy thing for a team. I predict a cataclysmic ending for the Tahs; the Stormers will munch them in Cape Town and the Reds in Brisbane will play like it’s a State of Origin match.

Of course, we could be wrong about all this. If you’ve got a different pick for the final four, hit the Comments link below and let us know.

Super 14 Team Rankings

I have from time to time had occasion to draw upon the resources of the excellent website “Pick & Go.” Created by Kev Lassen, Pick & Go is a database of rugby results from all over the world. If you want to know the names of past tournament winners, the average number of tries scored in Wallaby-Bok match-ups, or which team is currently holding which trophy, Pick & Go is the site for you.

Lately some interesting features have been added to the Super 14 part of the site. Of particular interest is the “Team Ranking” table. Each teams starts with 80 points. Teams exchange points with the teams they play using the same system the IRB uses for ranking national test sides. What is particularly interesting is where rankings deviate from current standings on the Super 14 ladder.

At the end of round 12, the top 6 ranked teams by Pick & Go’s reckoning were: Crusaders, Sharks, Hurricanes, Stormers, and the Waratahs.

On the Super 14 ladder, the top 6 teams were: Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Stormers. Chiefs, and the Sharks.

Interestingly, the team ranking is roughly similar to the ladder, with two notable exception. On the team ranking the Sharks are 2nd but on the ladder they’re currently 6^th. This tells us that the Sharks are currently down when judged against their historical record. Does this mean we can expect a bit of end-of-season bounce that will bring their ladder standing more in line with their team ranking? It’s usually foolish to make predictions on past performance without considering mitigating factors, but given that the Sharks have two games in Durban, there may be good reasons to suspect that they will finish the season a little closer to their ranking position. The situation is exactly reversed for the Waratahs. On the team ranking the Tahs are 6th, but on the ladder they’re currently 2nd. The Tahs have just begun a fairly tough road trip suggesting that their ladder position may slip and line up more with their historical ranking. We’ll watch and see.

Anyway, it’s all good speculating fun. Send us your take on the team rankings, what they tell us and what they don’t. And thanks to Pick & Go for giving us statistical grist to grind.

The King is Broken…

… long live the king!

On Friday night the Chiefs did what no other team in the Super 14 has done in recent memory – beat the Saders for the second time in a row. They did it by playing expansive rugby that attacked from every position on the field. They exploited the Crusaders weak back three mercilessly (why hasn’t Caleb Ralph been pensioned off???). And they won thanks to the play-making of this man Stephen Donald.

In a time when many in NZ fear the departure of Dan Carter and Nick Evans to the northern hemisphere, Stephen Donald is reminding the country of an old truth. For every superstar that leaves there is another waiting in the wings. Whatever happens later this year, Stephen Donald deserves a shot at the black jersey.