Morne Steyn Wins 2010 Super 14 Final

Bulls’ flyhalf Morne Steyn defeated the Stormers single-bootedly to win the 2010 Super 14 Final a few hours ago in Soweto. His was a near flawless performance with 7 from 8 kicks at goal successful. He kicked six penalties and one conversion. Steyn scored 20 points to the Stormers’ total of 17.

This follows last year’s performance when he scored 19 to the Chiefs’ 17.

Seriously though, rugby’s a team game. Steyn wasn’t alone and he was well supported by Fourie du Preez.

The officials at the match gave the MVP to the try-scoring, try-stopping Francois Hougaard. Hougaard indeed had a great game, but du Preez is the master behind the Bulls victorious season and finals.

Some say du Preez was robbed in not winning IRB player of the year last year. Well he’s making a strong case for winning the gong this year. If there’s a better or more successful scrum-half I don’t know who he is.

And congratulations to Victor Matfield who now joins a very small club of captains who have won at three Super Rugby championships. (The other two captains are Todd Blackadder and Richie McCaw.)

How did the Bulls win the Final?

The same way they’ve won every other game this season. They kicked and chased and boy, how they chased! We can only imagine the second-guessing that goes on in the mind of an opponent waiting under a high kick. “Who’s going to hit me first?” Usually it was about half of ton of blue-wearing, Afrikaner speaking humanity. Few teams were able to withstand the pressure in 2010.

The Stormers were robbed a few times by some dubious reffing from Craig Joubert, but they were never in the game. Any spark they brought with them was well and truly smothered by Bulls. The better team won. Congratulations to da Bulls. With three Finals wins in four years, they have established themselves as the dominant team in Super Rugby.

As an aside, can any of our readers tell us why Matfield referred to Jaco van der Westhuyzen as Mr Miyagi in the prize presentation?

Crusaders Humbled in Soweto

Okay, I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong. I seldom am wrong, but when I am I’ll man up to it. At the start of the season I picked the Saders and the Bulls to make the semis, and they did, but I backed the Cantabrians to go the whole way and they didn’t. I have rarely missed any excuse to sound off about my beloved Crusaders, but for much of this season, and yesterday in particular, they silenced me with their all-round feebleness.

Is this the end of an era?

The Crusaders have long played boring, stifling rugby, and, as long as they kept winning, we loved them for it. But this year they played boring, losing rugby. They lost four of their last five games.

Sure, they finished as the best-placed Kiwi team – no surprises there – but I am left with a huge sense of disbelief. I’m as frustrated as Richie McCaw must be wondering where the heck is team mates were.

I watched all 14 games played by the Crusaders in 2010. Here’s my overall assessment of the players…

The once great Dan Carter had 2 good games out of 14 and neither of them was yesterday. His mind rarely seems to be on the game these days. Perhaps he’s too busy opening clothing stores. The All Blacks are worried that DC might break a leg. What if he didn’t? What if he just continued to play like he’s been playing? What then?

Perhaps motivated by the threat of Kahn Fotuali’i on the bench, Andy Ellis had a huge game against the Brumbies last week. But yesterday he reverted to type with his aimless little runs and his lazy little lofts.

Sean Maitland has inherited Stephen Brett’s knack for making us leap and weep in the same play. He’s got legs of steel but hands of butter.

Robbie Fruen was given Casey Laulala’s huge jersey to fill and after 14 games still looks like a debutant.

Colin Slade, who ought to be Dan Carter’s All Black deputy, played with verve for much of the season but wilted under the pressure of the big game. So did Zac Guildford who had an otherwise standout first season.

Of all the backs who played yesterday, the only one who looked even half-ready was Daniel Bowden. Well done son for seizing the opportunity afforded you by Ryan Crotty‘s absence. (I might add that I thought Crotty’s defensive work was consistent all season.)

And now for the positives…

Richie McCaw and Keiran Read were the best on field for the Saders in Soweto. When Read fires off passes from the back of the scrum they have smoke on them. He’s also reliable under the high ball which, sadly, makes him a bit of a rarity these days. McCaw seemed to take half the season to adapt to the new rules, but whenever the refs allowed a contest at the breakdown he was utterly dominant. My only complaint with McCaw is he takes too long to recognize when a strategy isn’t working. Still, it must be hard to think when your head is being used as a doormat by burly opponents.

The Franks brothers (Ben and Owen) have given the Saders a scrum to be proud of. They’re young and full of promise. If only they were a bit more mobile with the ball in hand and they’d be shoe-ins for the test side.

Ti’i Paulo can’t throw line outs but show me any NZ hooker who can these days. Paulo would probably not have played if Corey Flynn’s arms weren’t so delicate, but he (Paulo) has seized the opportunity to show case his considerable talents. His style is suited to the running game and he’s a Mealamu in the making.

Brad Thorn was holding himself back for half of the season flopping onto tackles, but came good near the end. When he wants to be, he’s a presence, a talisman of the Reuben Thorne mould. It’s hard to imagine the Saders winning without him.

Sam and George Whitelock are a couple of steady eddies. Expect to see Sam at least in an All Blacks jersey soon. and possibly

The funny thing about the Crusader reserves is that while they’re not good enough to start, many of them are good enough to wear an All Black jersey. In this group I would include Kahn Fotuali’i, Thomas Waldrom and possibly Ryan Crotty.

I can’t make up my mind about Chris Jack. It’s nice to have him back but he doesn’t seem as mobile as he used to be. What is it about returning ABs? I can’t think of one who is even as good as when he left. Tim Bateman is the Richard Hammond of rugby. He’s enthusiastic, gets stuck in, but he’s so undeniably small that one fears for his safety, especially when playing the Bulls. Wyatt Crockett seems to have alienated every ref in the league. I can’t recall a single game where he didn’t give away three points for something. Jared Payne looked better last year.

Crusaders Send George Smith Into Retirement

The Crusaders have ended the Brumbies’ Super 14 season defeating them 40-22 tonight in Christchurch. Having just lost three on the road, and with their own season on the line, the Saders showed their class. They dominated right from the kick off and never looked like losing. They scored 5 tries to 3 securing them an important bonus point victory.

The win sends the Crusaders charging into the semi-finals for their ninth year in a row!

Zac Guildford was my MVP. He had a hand in setting two tries and scored one of his own.

The great George Smith (110 test matches) finished a stellar career with a decent game. In a nice touch his teammates let him have a crack at the final conversion. Unfortunately he dragged it left. I reckon if he’d made it the 28,000 Cantabrians in attendance would’ve roared with delight.

In the post-match interview Richie McCaw credited his long-term rival as a “menace” and “true champion.”

Thanks for the memories George. You’re all class. See you later.

While the boys from Canberra are heading home to lick their wounds, the men in red are probably heading straight back to South Africa.

Classic Match on the Highveld Goes Down to the Wire

Wow! What a game! In the end the Crusaders were denied victory after the Bulls scored the a try in the 81st minute. But the reality is both teams were outstanding. This was a game for the ages.

The final score 40-35 in favour of the Bulls. The Crusaders scored four tries, three conversions, two penalties and one drop goal. The Bulls scored three tries, two conversions, five penalties, and two drop goals.

Strangely, it was a game of tries and kicks. Morne Steyn, who scored 25 points for the Bulls, kept his team close in an otherwise quiet first half with two 50+m penalties and a drop goal. Although Canterbury crossed the line again and again, Steyn’s kicks ensured the Bulls were always a threat.

Daniel Carter responded in kind with a drop goal of his own and clutch 55m penalty to take the lead with two minutes to go.

The Bulls dominated the scrums and the line-outs. The Saders dominated the territory. In the first half the Bulls were hardly out of their own half. But it didn’t matter thanks to Steyn’s long-distance kicking.

Francois Hougaard was brilliant for the Bulls out-running the field and dotting down his first try in the 31st minute. But it was his second try – after catching an errant pass that had bounced off a Crusaders’ hand – that secured victory for the home side.

After two awful games on the road every Crusader stepped up tonight. Every single one of them played like their lives depended on it. Andy Ellis, recalled to the starting XV despite decent performances from Kahn Fotuali’i, seized the opportunity and led well. Dan Carter got better and better as the game wore on. Colin Slade was reliable. But the most improved player out there was the great-once-again Richie McCaw. He was everywhere.

Of course I’m gutted by the result. The Saders deserved to win and were a tiny bit unlucky not to do so. That said, the Bulls are all class. They never gave up despite leaking four tries.

Things just got a little tighter at the top of the table. But if it turns out that the Saders survive to play the Bulls again in Loftus in the next few weeks, it will be a rematch of epic proportions.

Reds Roll Over Bulls

The Queensland Reds played some of the best rugby I’ve ever seen to beat the Champion Bulls 19-12 on Saturday night. What a game it was!

Three years ago the Bulls thrashed the Reds 92-3. The Reds have, er, improved a little since then.

The Bulls were frustrated at every turn. They didn’t get either the ball or the calls. Morne Steyn had an off night. Wynand Olivier was well contained as was Pierre Spies. Fourie du Preez? Where were you?

How did the Reds do it? They ran and ran and ran from every where in the field. They didn’t kick it out of their own 22 until the dying minutes of the game. Will Genia was a wizard slicing and dicing up the middle. Quade Cooper was in total control of his team. Peter Hynes and Digby Ioane also made good ground with the ball.

The Reds forwards played above themselves holding their own in the lineouts and scrums. Daniel Braid was a rock and Scott Higginbotham scored an outstanding individual try.

The try of the night though belonged to the visitors. At the fifth minute mark they raced down field recycling the ball through multiple phases until Derick Kuun dotted down. Steyn converted and that was it for over an hour.

I suspect many people, like me, have become closet Reds fans this season. It’s hard not to cheer for the underdogs. They have come out of nowhere to knock down some hefty opponents. Right now they are the top-ranked Australian side and, if they can keep up this sort of performance, they will have their first semi-final appearance in 9 years. It will be well earned.

Who Can Stop the Stormers?

Earlier today Graham Henry said the Stormers were the in form side of this year’s Super 14. Having just watched them demolish the Chiefs, 49-15, it’s hard to disagree.

Think about this, the Stormers have lost just twice this season, and their biggest loss was just 2 points. But their wins. Oh my – they’ve torn apart the Tahs, the Canes and the Highlanders. Last week they silenced a resurgent Blues side and tonight they effectively ended the Chief’s season.

If defense wins championships, the Stormers are shoe-ins. Their defense is the best in the league by a long mile. Prior to tonight’s game they had conceded just 96 points. The next best team – the Crusaders – had let in 161 points.

This is a completely different Stormers team from previous season. Schalk Burger is just one of many forwards who are playing with discipline and smarts. Yes, I said Schalk Burger. (Here’s a message for Heinrich Brussow. Schalk wants his Springbok jersey back.) Andres Bekker has suddenly become the best lock in South Africa. He’s tall, mobile, and his work ethic is outstanding. Leibenberg doesn’t look any more mobile than any other hooker, but looks can be deceiving.

The Stormers backs aren’t too bad either. Jacque Fourie must be one of the top 3 outside centres in the world. Peter Grant is a superb goal kicker. Bryan Habana has slotted right in to his new side.

What really impressed me about how they’ve played in New Zealand is how well they have recycled the ball. They are one of the few teams to exploit the new rules regarding the breakdown. Their offense is relentless. They run opponents ragged and are very good at taking care of the pill.

Kind of like how the Crusaders used to be.

The Stormers’ season is about to get a whole lot tougher. Next week they play the Reds in Brisbane, then it’s the Saders in Cape Town. Their last game is against the Bulls.

But if they continue to play like they did tonight, then the Super 14 Final on May 29 will be in Cape Town. No doubt about it.

Dan Carter’s Super Rugby Record: 1,022 Points!

Dan Carter had an average night in Christchurch missing three kicks at goal. But he made enough points to overtake Stirling Mortlock as the all-time individual points-scoring leader in Super Rugby history.

Carter started playing Super 12 rugby in 2003. He took half of 2007 off for the All Black’s conditioning programme and he missed all of the 2009 season breaking legs in France. So he’s got his 1,022 points in about 6 seasons all told. That works out to be about 170 points per season or about 13-14 points per game.

Later this year Carter will likely become the first All Black to score 1,000 test points as well. So 2010 is shaping up to be the year of millenniums. Congratulations DC!

Beatabull!

The Bulls’ 12 game winning streak came to a sudden end tonight at Mt Eden. Stephen Brett put up 22 points and the Blues won 32-17. The Blues played better than they have in eons and ran the Bulls ragged with their wide game.

In the coming fortnight the Bulls are likely to be tested by both the Chiefs (in Hamilton) and the Reds (in Brisbane). Meanwhile the Blues will be looking to repeat their form against the Stormers. It looks like there will be a real shake-up at the top of the table.

Saders Snatch Draw from the Jaws of Defeat Which they Previously Snatched from the Jaws of Victory

I guess a draw is better than a loss – just ask the Stormers who handed the Force their first win since Queen Victoria reigned.

But what in the world of Carmen Miranda is going on in the Crusader’s camp? They romp out to an 18-0 lead in Wellington, stick it in neutral and let the Canes out-play them at their own game. Then when they realize they’re in trouble it’s time for a bit of panic and oh deary-dear. They very nearly lost to a team they have beaten in 7 of their last 8 encounters.

If you missed the game last night, the Crusaders scored the equalizer try a full three minutes after the siren. Then Mr 1000-points Dan Carter choked on the conversion that would’ve given them an undeserved victory.

Nonu, Smith and Hore were brilliant for the Canes. Their All Black jerseys looked very secure last night. Cory Jane was also reliable and should be the preferred back-up to Mils Muliaina in the national team.

The same could not be said of certain Crusaders. Keiran Read had a below average night. Brad Thorn seems to be concerned with self-preservation most of the time. Sam Whitelock and Colin Slade both had what locks and fullbacks should never have – butterfingers. Carter was great on defense but was absent-minded on a night when his team sorely needed his leadership.

But what really bugs this Saders fan is how the team often seems to lack heart, particularly on defense. If you want an exemplar of guts at the breakdown, look no further than Andrew Hore. He’s into everything and I’m sure he pinched the ball more than any flanker on the field.

It’s often said of Crusader victories that they were achieved without the team getting out of second gear. You could say the same of their losses in draws. I’m beginning to wonder if there’s anything beyond second gear.

As usual, I have a few suggestions for Coach Blackadder.

On Monday take the squad to the bottom of Mt Hutt. Tell them every spot is open and the first 8 forwards and the first 7 backs to reach the top will get to start against the Tahs. Anyone who doesn’t make it to the top can go play for the Blues.

Incidentally, you have a game in Pretoria coming up soon so running up hills should be a regular feature of your training.

Second, you have a number of talented people competing for the same spot. Here’s how you can decide who gets to start. Put a rugby ball in the middle of the pitch. Put, say, Andy Ellis at one end and Kahn Fotuali’i at the other. Blow your whistle. First one to pick the ball up and score a try gets the Number 9 jersey. Do the same thing for the four locks crowding each other on the bench. Don’t do it for the flankers though because we don’t want Richie and Read getting embarrassed by the great and departing Thomas Waldrom.

Incidentally, you should do whatever it takes to keep Waldrom. Bury his passport, put him on the travel watchlist, but don’t let him go.

Third, it was nice to see a maul or two last night. They weren’t pretty but by golly they had the Canes in a tiz. There’s a real opportunity to become the only Kiwi side that masters the maul. BTW, the scrum is looking great. Given Owen Franks a pat on the head.

Fourth, burn all that cotton-wool that you’ve been using to protect your marque players. This idea that they need to look after themselves has affected their playing mentality. They’re holding back. Swap the cotton wool for a rocket up the bum of some of your senior players who should know better.

Fifth, anyone team member caught putting highlights in their hair can also go and play for the Blues.

Sixth, if none of the above works, given Reuben Thorne a call. I believe he’s playing for the Cup Noodles team in Japan somewhere. He was no superstar but his worth ethic is legendary. He could teach the 2010 squad a thing or two about that.

Stephen Brett: Auckland Hero?

Auckland Blues fly-half Stephen Brett had a hand in all three tries scored at North Harbour Stadium last night. He scored the first and set up the second to John Afoa, then handed a gift pass to opposition winger Hosea Gear.

If you missed the game, Brett was brilliant in the first half and woeful in the second. For 40 minutes he was Auckland’s inspirational leader. After the break he gave Wellington the start they needed to secure the victory. For those of us who hail from Canterbury it was deja vu all over again.

Did you not wonder, Aucklanders, why we Cantabrians didn’t make a fuss when you took Brett away from us over the summer?

Stephen Brett is a talented rugby player – make no doubt about it. But unfortunately he’s as steady as a drunk on a skateboard. One moment he’s setting up tries, the next he’s a revolving door while Pierre Spies races past to score the semi-final winning try for the Bulls last year. Did you think we’d forgotten?

Last year the Saders lost 4 of their first 5 games. You hate to blame a single player but if Brett had made even half of his kicks those four losses would’ve been victories. And then we would’ve been playing the Bulls in Christchurch not Pretoria and you know what that means.

No, we’re over it. Really. I was thrilled to hear that Auckland had secured Brett’s services and I really hope it works out for him and them. You guys look good together.

Auckland, the home of erratic champions like Carlos Spencer and Isaia Toeava. Brett should fit right in with the Blues. It’s a perfect match.

New Rules = New Record

The Hurricanes slotted a Super Rugby record 9 penalty goals last night at North Harbour Stadium. Stu Dickinson’s whistle kept them in the game in the first half (despite Willie Ripia’s average kicking) then gave them the victory in the second when ever-reliable Piri Weepu started banging them in from all over. I forget the exact penalty count but it was a lot.

Full credit to the Canes for adapting to the new breakdown rules. Auckland Blues – did you miss that memo or something?

Super 14 Predictions (2010)

At the start of every season we at Rugby Asteroid like to stick our necks out and make predictions. Unlike what you might find at some of the more fancy rugby websites, these predictions are not made on considered assessments of form, but are rather based on who we like at any given moment.

And who do we like more in 2010 than the Crusaders?

Last year was probably the worst start in Sader history. With eight key players missing they lost 4 of their first 5 games before clawing their way back into contention. Although they didn’t make the Finals, having lost their semi-final to the Bulls in Pretoria, in our view they were the second-best team in the league by the end of the season. And look who’s come back/joined the side since then!

The entire pack, from Franks to Waldrom, could out-muscle any All Black pack made up of non-Crusaders. The front row isn’t bad and will hold up as long as Corey Flynn’s arms don’t break. Next to him are Franks and Franks. For the second row coach Blackadder can choose between Brad Thorn, Chris Jack, and Isaac Ross, every one an All Black. For the back row there’s Richie McCaw, Keiran Read, George Whitelock and Thomas Waldrom.

Who’s Thomas Waldrom you ask? For those of you who don’t know Waldrom, he led NZ in ball carries last year and was one of the top tacklers. Nicknamed Thomas the Tank, Waldrom doesn’t look like much but boy he can play. If he were active in any era other than the McCaw era, he would be an automatic starter for the ABs.

The Crusader backs are led by one Dan Carter and consist of three decent wings (Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Kade Poki), two very good fullbacks (Jared Payne and Colin Slade), an occasionally outstanding scrum-half (Andy Ellis), and two small but reliable centres (Tim Bateman and ?).

With 13 All Blacks in the team, every match against the Crusaders will be like a test match. Who can stop the Crusaders in 2010? We predict no one. No one at all. Barring unforeseen injuries we expect the Saders to win every game up to and including the Final. You might as well hand them the trophy now and starting preparing for the 3N.

Who else looks good in NZ? No one frankly. The Chiefs reckon they can go one better than their Finals loss to the Bulls. Good luck to them, but they’re dreaming. Expect some regression to the mean this year.

The Hurricanes know the clock is ticking and if they’re going to do it it’s now or never. It’ll be never.

The Blues think that by relieving Canterbury of NZ’s worst kicker, Stephen Brett, that somehow they will be able to fix their litany of woes.

The Highlanders are led by Jamie McIntosh, who made it clear during the off-season that he doesn’t want to be there, and Jimmy Cowan, who only shines when surrounded by the calming influence of All Black talent. And you Otagoans can start packing up the Ranfurly Shield. You won’t be holding on to that for long.

In Australia I expect the real competition will be between the Waratahs and the Brumbies. It will be tight and it will be fierce but I reckon a Giteau trumps a Barnes (just) and that the Brumbies will be the team to beat.

Historically the Reds couldn’t win a lottery even if they held all the tickets. But this year with new coach Ewen McKenzie and some promising Wallaby talent coming through (Will Genia, Quade Cooper), they should finish higher than the Force who are rebuilding (12 new players).

Incidentally, expect things to get interesting next year when the Melbourne franchise starts up. In case you hadn’t heard, the yet to be named Melbourne team will include up to 10 international players, hopefully Argentinian, but likely Kiwi.

Regarding South Africa I confess I’m somewhat uninformed. I’m aware that the Lions offered big money to attract Carlos Spencer. That will make the Lions entertaining but I doubt it will be a happy marriage. Teams built on mercenaries – no offense King Carlos – seldom go the distance.

Despite having the best flanker in the Republic in Heinrich Brüssow, the Cheetahs will compete ferociously for last place with the Lions and the Force.

The Stormers have lost JDV to Munster but have gained Bryan Habana and Jacque Fourie. These two gents are at the top of their game and should help keep the Stormers in the mix until the closing rounds of the season.

The Sharks are like the Hurricanes; long on talent but short on trophies. They nearly won the Currie Cup last year; they nearly won the Super 14 two years before that. This year they’ve signed some promising young talent but they have lost Francois Steyn. They will not beat the Bulls and the probably won’t beat the Stormers.

For my money you can’t go past the homegrown talent of the Bulls. They’ve lost Habana but they have a culture that breeds winners like Morne Steyne and Victor Matfield. With Fourie du Preez leading from behind the scrum they will be the best team in the Republic. They can’t win away but they can’t lose at home. If they’re able to stick to their tried and true game plan, they will easily make the play-offs.

Last year we predicted both the Crusaders and the Chiefs would make the play-offs, and they did. However we wrongly predicted that the Waratahs and Sharks would be good enough to be up there with them and they weren’t. The Tahs finished 5^th and the Sharks came a lowly 8^th. We were surprised by the strong performances of the Bulls and Hurricanes.

So how do we predict the last Super 14 will finish up? Just like this:

1. Crusaders
2. Bulls
3. Brumbies
4. Hurricanes

A detailed fixtures list for the 2010 S14 tournament can be found here.

Springboks Looking Blue and Ominous

Congratulations to Victor Matfield and his rampaging Bulls for removing any doubt as to who was the best Super 14 team in 2009. Over the years we’ve had occasion to pour scorn on the Bulls one-dimensional game, but last Saturday they proved they’re the complete package. Their eight-try demolition job on the Chiefs was truly historic. They attacked from every part of the field and scored points everywhere.

Muliaina Dominates S14 Final Speech-making Contest

The S14 season closed with an unexpectedly one-sided contest over the weekend as Chief’s captain Mils Muliaina won the post-match captain’s speech in emphatic style.

Muliaina was in fine form scoring points seemingly at will with his gracious acceptance of the outcome, his praise for the refs and, of course, the victorious team. His articulation was clear and his emotion controlled in what was a truly remarkable display of determination given the earlier match result.

Super 14 Semi-Final Predictions (2009)

What another brilliant finale to a fiercely-fought season! The last game of the regular season finished just a few hours ago with only one point separating the first and sixth-best teams in the league. Commiserations to all the Sharks fans out there who must be heart-broken after their team came oh so close. Another few minutes and a drop goal would’ve put your team in the final four.

At the start of the season we predicted the Chiefs and the Crusaders to make the final four and they did. We also predicted the Tahs would be the best of the Aussie teams and they were.

We predicted the Bulls would have the measure of the Sharks and they did, but we also predicted the Sharks would finish higher on the table, yet they didn’t.

We predicted the Canes would lose to the better teams and they did, going down to the Tahs, Bulls, Sharks and Chiefs. But they also notched up some impressive wins over the Saders and the Brumbies.

Just four teams remain. Here are our predictions for the semi-finals.

On Friday the Hurricanes meet the Chiefs in Waikato. This is a rematch of the game they played just last weekend. In that one the Canes were soundly beaten by Stephen Donald.

History favours the Canes in this derby – they usually smash the Chiefs. But the Chiefs are on a winning roll having lost just once in their last ten outings.

My only question is whether the Chiefs have the BMT to deliver the goods on the day. They have little finals experience, but they have many experienced players. Led by the brilliant Mils Muliaini, they should be able to shut down the Canes running game. I expect the Chiefs to win by 6.

On Saturday the 2008 champions meet the 2007 champions in Pretoria. Earlier in the season we suggested that the Sharks were the pretenders to the Crusaders’ throne but the Bulls are just as keen for a change in dynasty.

Since the middle of the 2008 season the Bulls have been in phenomenal form losing just 3 of their last 17 games. They are the winningest side in Super Rugby over the past 14 months.

That said, history favours the Crusaders with the men in red beating the men in blue 11 times to 3 in Super Rugby matches. The Crusaders won a tight game in Christchurch this season and blew the Bulls out of the water in Pretoria last season. Can they do it again this weekend? You better believe it.

The Crusaders had a horror start to the 2009 season but have won 7 of their last 8 games. Significantly, this young side has improved with every game. They play boring low-scoring rugby, but it’s effective. Their red wall is the best defense in the league. Provided the erratic Stephen Brett doesn’t kick the game away, I expect the Crusaders to win by 2.

And what of the 2009 grand final? I predict the last match of the season will be a rematch of the very first match of the season – Crusaders v. Chiefs.

Postscript: Far be it from us to toot our own horns, but last year we correctly called the winners of both the semi-finals and the grand final.

How to Fix Super Rugby

Apparently Super Rugby is broken and needs fixing. The money men want more games but the players want less. More games means more excitement and more advertising dollars. But more games also means more injuries, therefore less excitement and fewer advertising dollars. It’s a catch-22 situation.

News out of Dublin yesterday suggests the suits have won the day with the competition being expanded to 15 teams in 2011 and the finals extended to 6 games. Although the details have not been announced, the fact that the ARU are happy about the initiative suggests that the extra team may be an Australian side. This would be both fair and stupid. Fair, because New Zealand and South Africa already have five teams each. Stupid, because there aren’t enough quality players in Australia to make up four Super Rugby teams let alone five.

More intriguing is the possibility that the 15^th team will be composed of Argentinean players based on the Gold Coast of Australia.

There’s no doubt that forging a deal which keeps all three SANZAR unions happy was going to be tricky. Neither should there be any doubt that the Super Rugby competition is the best in the world and worth preserving. So I for one am glad that the unions are staying together.

But this doesn’t resolve the fundamental conflict of developing the tournament without killing the players or turning it into a glorified Currie/Air NZ Cup. So allow me to offer my solution – the Jekyll Plan – which can be summarized in a word: relegation.

The basic plan looks like this:

• limit the Super Rugby competition to 10-14 teams
• at the end of each season the bottom 2-3 teams are eliminated and sent down to play in the Currie Cup or Air New Zealand Cup
• conversely, the best 2-3 teams from the provincial competitions win the opportunity to compete in premier tournament
• players can only play in one competition per season
• the A and B competitions could be run consecutively (as at present) or concurrently on alternating weekends

Of course this proposal would require a radical reworking of the provincial tournaments. At present, there is no clear line separating the provincial sides from their respective Super Rugby franchises. Australia doesn’t even have a provincial tournament. But these details could be worked out. For example, players in Canterbury could have the option of playing for either Canterbury or the Crusaders, but not both. Or players in Pretoria could play for the Blue Bulls or the Bulls, but not both. Separating the two competitions is both good for business and for the development of the game.

The advantages of the Jekyll Plan are too good to ignore:

• player welfare would be enhanced with fewer games and longer recovery periods (eg: more byes)
• if the Aussies couldn’t organize their own provincial league they could play in the Air NZ tournament making that league more competitive and promoting the development of players from both countries
• the competition among the weaker performing Super Rugby teams would intensify, particularly toward the end of the season; they would be playing for more than just pride
• the competition among the better performing provincial teams would intensify
• best of all, better competition would lead to higher team revenues reducing the disparity with Northern Hemisphere clubs; players could be paid what they deserve and the northern exodus of talent would decline

Relegation and promotion are common in many sports but are rarely seen in the SANZAR nations. Adopting the Jekyll Plan will require creativity and management – but isn’t that what the suits get paid for?

Mortlock Breaks Individual Scoring Record

I happened to catch only two minutes of yesterday’s match between the Brumbies and the Blues, but it was an historic two minutes for I saw Mortlock nail a conversion and break the all-time Super Rugby scoring record. With the conversion Mortlock now has 992 points, two more than Andrew Mehrtens. It wasn’t his best kick. Kicking from right to left Mortlock pulled it a tad and the ball hit the left-hand upright before falling between the posts. But it counted and Mortlock is a deserving record-holder. Congratulations Stirling!

Next week the Brumbies play the Chiefs. If the in-form Chiefs win, it will be the end of the Brumbies season. The question in everyone’s mind is whether Mortlock can deliver 8 more points and crack the 1,000 mark in 2009. Now that would be really something.

How safe is Mortlock’s record? The answer to that depends on Dan Carter’s health.

Crusader Autopsy

Prior to the start of the season we predicted Richie McCaw would lead a depleted Crusader side to the playoffs in 2009. Well Richie won’t be leading anyone anywhere for a while yet. He’s broken, as is the entire club. Richie went down in the 31st minute of yesterday’s loss to the Highlanders a crippled symbol of the club’s gloomy future.

The Saders have lost three out of their first four games. That’s more losses than they had in the entire 2008 season. Only once before have the Saders lost three in a row in a regular Super season, and that was at the very beginning of the very first season in 1996. That year they finished 12th out of 12 teams.

The scary thing is they haven’t yet played any of the teams currently on top of the table.

If you want to know why the team is struggling, just look at the list of players who were in the championship side last season. I’ve highlighted those players who remain active…

Super 14 Predictions (2009)

Over the last week we’ve had a few hundred hits on the post with my predictions for last year’s S14 tournament, so I thought I’d better gaze into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the coming season looks like. And for the record, we’re pretty darn accurate here at Rugby Asteroid. We picked the Crusaders to win at the start of last season and they did. However, we dropped the ball big time on the runners up. We expected the Sharks to finish 2nd but they came 3rd. Oh well, nobody’s perfect.

Richie versus Robbie – Who Will Prevail?

About this time of the week the mainstream rugby sites start analysing the player match-ups for the big game – will it be Giteau or Carter? Mortlock or Nonu? But this week the most compelling match-up is between two legendary Cantabrians, Wallaby coach Robbie Deans and All Black captain Richie McCaw. And what a match-up it is! Will the student out-shine the teacher or does the old dog still have a few tricks left in him?

These two men have a lot in common. Both were born and bred in Canterbury. Both have represented the province and both have played for All Blacks. Neither would be mistaken for a metrosexual male.  Significantly, both made their reputations winning games for the Crusaders and for each other. If Robbie was the brains behind the ‘Saders many championships, Richie was very much the muscle.

In June this year they won the Super 14 again and then parted company. Robbie headed to the West Island to resurrect the Wobblies while Richie resumed his captaincy of a now-broken and demoralised All Black side.

In the last two months they have further established their reps as leaders of men. “Dingo Deans” has had a very decent start to his Australian coaching career with wins over both the ABs and Boks. Meanwhile Richie continues to cement his place among great All Black captains with his phenomenal work-rate and talismanic presence. For NZ the equation is simple: no Richie = no win. As a coach, Robbie leads with words. But for Richie actions speak louder.

So tomorrow these two legends meet to contest the Battle of Brisbane. For Robbie the most important part of the game will be the half-time break. Robbie is a master of the half-time talk. How often have we seen an unfocused Crusaders team come roaring out of the sheds to dominate a second half? For Richie, the key period will be the final quarter, when the pressure really mounts. Some say he choked during the dying minutes of the Cardiff disaster last year. But Crusaders fans also know a Richie-led team usually doesn’t fire until the last 20 minutes.

Who will win, the apprentice or the master? Having watched these two work together for years, my gut says “Richie” and my brain says “yep, it’s Richie all the way.” Bring on Brisbane!