Super 14 Semi-Final Predictions (2008)

At the beginning of the season we predicted a final between the Crusaders and the Sharks in Christchurch. So far all is going to plan though the Hurricanes and Waratahs might yet have something to say about that.

So now we’re down to four teams, three games, two finalists, and one eventual champion. Here’s our take on the games to be played this coming weekend.

1. On Friday night the Crusaders will host the Hurricanes in Christchurch. Historically the Saders have had the measure of the Canes. In the fifteen times that these two teams have met in Super Rugby, the Saders have won 12 times, the Canes just 3. Playing away will hardly help the Wellingtonians’ cause as they’ve not won a game in Christchurch in 7 years. That said, the difference between the two sides in their last four contests was less than 12 points, so it could be close on the night. Both teams will be coming off losses – the Canes narrowly lost to the Blues on Friday night, while the Saders lost to the gutsy Highlanders on Saturday. Neither team has lost two games in a row this year. The numbers show that the Canes tend to bounce back emphatically after losses, while the Crusaders have not had a really convincing win in six weeks. Much press is being made of the supposed chinks in the Saders’ armour. But semi-final rugby has different pressures from the regular season and we expect the Saders’ class and greater experience to shine on the night. PREDICTION: Crusaders to win by 10.
2. On Saturday night the Waratahs will host the Sharks in Sydney. This is a big hill for the Sharks to climb. Not only do they have the inconvenience of long-distance travel, but history is very much against them winning at Sydney. The last time they did so was in March 2000. These two teams have met 11 times and the Tahs have been victorious on 7 occasions; the Sharks have won on only 3 occasions. The Sharks are coming off two huge wins, but these were both in Durban. They have not done so well on the road this year as the Tahs well know, having thumped them in Sydney just three weeks ago. In contrast, the Tahs enter the semis with a less definitive record of recent weeks. Much like the Crusaders they have not finished particularly strongly. This will give Sharks’ fan much hope. But one thing the Tahs do very well is win in Sydney. They haven’t lost a game at home all season. PREDICTION: Waratahs to win by 5.