Super 14 Final Predictions (2008)

A week ago we predicted Crusaders and the Waratahs would win their respective semis. Oddly as it seems now, the Crusaders’ pick went against the tide of opinion, at least here in New Zealand. The majority of talking heads on TV backed the Canes despite their awful record against the Saders. Perhaps it was an urge to pick the underdogs. Perhaps they thought that the Saders’ recent performance in Games That Did Not Matter was an accurate indicator of their likely performance in Games That Do Matter. Whatever, the Saders bounced back emphatically. In statistics it’s called regression to the mean – the great teams always bounce back, just as the mediocre teams tend to slide after brief bursts of glory (I won’t embarrass the Chiefs by mentioning them).

And what of the coming weekend?

In the old days the Tahs and the Saders used to be evenly matched. But lately the wins have been all one-way with the Saders victorious in their last five contests with the Tahs. We expect that trend to continue this weekend. The Tahs were thumped by the Crusaders four tries to one back in March. Although they have had a pretty good run since then – give them credit for beating the Sharks twice – I don’t see them winning in Christchurch. It’s not just the rabid Cantabrian fans – it’s the awful weather that seems to unsettle the Sydneysiders. In 12 seasons they’ve only won in Christchurch once, back in 2004.

Whatever happens, this Saturday marks the end of an era in Christchurch. Half the old players won’t be returning next year and the Great Robbie Deans is heading to the eastern isle to coach the Wallabies. The Crusaders will have the will to win like the Canes saw last night. Yes, the Tahs quite capable of rising to the challenge, but once the Crusaders settle into their slow “boring” brand of pick and go rugby it’ll be nighty-night for the visitors. The Tahs might put on a good show for 40 or 60 minutes, but the game will be decided in the final quarter.

Prediction: Crusaders to win their seventh championship by 10 points.