Tri-Nations Picks 2009

The 2009 Tri-Nations is over! The final ranking of our experts is as follows:

1. Purple Princess (89)

2. Numbers Man (85)

3. Valentino (74)

4= Eurochick (67)

4= Flower Child (67)

4= Western Wizard (67)

7. Jeykll (57)

8. Rocky (50)

9. Mr Gum (42)

Average female score: 74.25

Average male score: 60.2

Congratulations to the Purple Princess (aged 4) for dominating a panel made up of older, but evidently not wiser, experts!

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Once again we have assembled some of the most opinionated minds in rugby fan-dom to bring you our weekly picks for the 2009 Tri-Nations series. The accuracy of each expert will updated weekly to help you distinguish the wizards from the shysters. This year’s increasingly mis-named Experts’ Panel is more eclectic than ever with fans of all stripes and ages. To learn more about our panelists see the bottom of this page.

3N Game 9: NZ v Aust. at Wellington 19 Sept 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Purple Princess (77)		by 15
2	Numbers Man (75)		by 10
3	The Panel Predicts (65)		by 8
4	Valentino (64)		by 10
5	Flower Child (57)		by 5
6	Eurochick (57)		by 6
7	Western Wizard (57)		by 7
8	Jekyll (47)		by 12
9	Rocky (40)		by 10
10	Mr Gum (32)		by 3

Comments from…

3N Game 8: NZ v RSA at Hamilton 12 Sept 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Purple Princess (77)		by 30
2	Numbers Man (75)		by 15
3	The Panel Predicts (65)		by 15
4	Valentino (64)		by 8
5	Flower Child (57)		by 12
6	Eurochick (57)		by 15
7	Western Wizard (57)		by 18
8	Jekyll (47)		by 20
9	Rocky (40)		by 5
10	Mr Gum (32)		by 10

Comments from…

Mr Gum: It kills me to say it but Boks are looking tired, playing 3rd game in a row, AB’s are out for revenge, have more to play for and it’s a home game for NZ.

3N Game 7: Aust v RSA at Brisbane 5 Sept 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Purple Princess (67)		by 25
2	Numbers Man (65)		by 5
3	Valentino (64)		by 10
4	Flower Child (57)		by 1
5	The Panel Predicts (55)		by 3
6	Eurochick (47)		by 4
7	Western Wizard (47)		by 8
8	Rocky (40)		by 10
9	Mr Gum (32)		by 3
10	Jekyll (30)		by 9

Comments from…

The father of Purple Princess: Each week I ask PP to identify which team she fancies from the two choices. She thinks for a second then confidently declares her choice. Then I ask her “by how much” and she usually comes up with a number between 3 and 20. I try and make this process as unbiased as possible and hopefully I do not interfere with her choice in any way. This process is quite random because she really knows nothing about the three teams, and yet once again, she is bettering her elders. Another observation: In a season where there have been no blow-outs, PP’s picks tend to be the most extreme in the panel. Her average margin is 14 points. The panel average’s average margin is just 3 points. Not only is she beating more knowledgeable experts, but she is doing it with wildly inflated picks. This week she actually predicted the Wallabies to win by 50 points. For the first time I broke my rule of non-interference and scaled it down to 25. I did this so as not to distort the panel’s average. Maybe I was wrong. I might yet change my mind and put it back to 50 before the game. But my mind and ego are already battered by my daughter’s superior performance in this thing.

Jekyll: I have gone from champ to chump in this panel and it’s all because I’ve refused to give up on the Wobblies. I maintain that they’re not as bad as their losing streak suggests and that this week they’ll prove it at Brisbane. This could be the end of the season for AB fans. If the Wallabies don’t win by more than a converted try, the Boks will win the tournament there and then.

Numbers Man: It’s time Australia had a win: Wallabies by 5.

Rocky: I think that the Australian side has lost the plot. Pocock will have a positive influence in the back row and having Barnes back will also help but until Giteau gets his mojo back the confidence of the S Africans will be too much for the Aussies.

Mr Gum: We’re not doing all that great on the 2009 picks so it’s time to go big or we’re going to be competing for the wooden spoon. Therefore I say (Boks by 3) this Saturday although I have a gut feel the Aussie might pull something out of the fire. They always managed to find something under pressure.

3N Game 6: Aust v RSA at Perth 29 August 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Flower Child (57)		by 3
2	The Panel Predicts (55)		by 1
3	Purple Princess (52)		by 3
4	Numbers Man (50)		by 11
5	Eurochick (47)		by 8
6	Western Wizard (47)		by 10
7	Valentino (47)		by 6
8	Mr Gum (32)		by 7
9	Jekyll (30)		by 12
10	Rocky (25)		by 10

Comments from…

3N Game 5: Aust v NZ at Sydney 22 August 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Western Wizard (47)		by 6
2	Flower Child (42)		by 5
3	Purple Princess (42)		by 20
4	Numbers Man (40)		by 10
5	The Panel Predicts (40)		by 3
6	Mr Gum (32)		by 5
7	Valentino (32)		by 3
8	Eurochick (30)		by 2
9	Rocky (25)		by 4
10	Jekyll (15)		by 6

Comments from…

Western Wizard: I’ll say the Wallabies by 6 points. And I say that with very little confidence indeed.

Rocky: Wallabies by 4 in an ugly ugly game but only if the ref lets the boys play and doesn’t call stupid penalties. I mean lets face it no team is going to collapse their own attacking scrum!

3N Game 4: Aust v RSA at Cape Town 8 August 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Purple Princess (32)		by 20
2	Flower Child (32)		by 3
3	Western Wizard (32)		by 8
4	Numbers Man (25)		by 15
5	The Panel Predicts (25)		by 9
6	Mr Gum (17)		by 7
7	Eurochick (15)		by 8
8	Valentino (15)		by 12
9	Rocky (10)		by 10
10	Jekyll (0)		by 11

Comments from…

Valentino: After Round 3. So, guess who’s in the Boks seat? It is interesting to see the Springboks playing with the precision of former All Black teams and the All Blacks infringing with the regularity of a Springbok team. Congratulations to the Springboks for lifting their game, and on two polished performances. What about the All Blacks? Well, definitely not in the box seat. What’s more, the future looks All Black and gloomy. So, ignoring emotion, let’s bring some logic into the situation: Premise 1. Competent rugby players do NOT consistently make mistakes. Premise 2. Some All Blacks consistently make mistakes. Conclusion. Some All Blacks are not competent rugby players.

Therefore, why not replace the incompetent (experienced or not) with competent rugby players? Don’t tell me there aren’t any; the opening round of the provincial Air New Zealand Cup revealed numerous players worthy of All Black status. Who ever thought I’d be barracking for the Wallabies?

Jekyll: I’m 0 from 3 – I can’t believe it! But I can’t see the young Wallabies beating the inform Boks, not even in Cape Town.

3N Game 3: NZ v RSA at Durbin 1 August 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Flower Child (32)		by 5
2	Western Wizard (32)		by 11
3	Numbers Man (25)		by 9
4	The Panel Predicts (25)		by 2
5	Purple Princess (17)		by 9
6	Eurochick (15)		by 2
7	Valentino (15)		by 3
8	Rocky (10)		by 1
9	Jekyll (0)		by 8
10	Mr Gum (0)		by 10

Comments from…

Valentino: The All Blacks were beaten; they didn’t merely lose the match. Notwithstanding the Springboks’ strengths, silly mistakes again contributed to the All Blacks’ demise. The question is ”Can the ABs learn from their mistakes?”  Theoretically, “Yes” [at least the team still has all eyes intact] but the presence of too many mistakes in two consecutive matches is a worry. Is ‘too many missed tackles’ a mistake, or is it a lack of fundamental skills? What about passes to nowhere?

What can be done? Having the reputation, because of an ability, of being able to come from behind is admirable, but why base your game on playing ‘catch-up’ rugby’? There are two possible explanations for an ability to consistently play better in the second half. The time-honoured reason, and the one we like to believe, is that the ABs are fitter than their opposition, that they last longer. However, there is a second possible reason, namely that the team playing in the second half is the better team. Why commit to playing catch-up rugby? Why not establish an early lead and fight to extend that lead throughout the game? Why not play the better team combinations in the first half?  Where is the flair that once so characterised AB rugby? Is it sitting on the bench?

The Springbok lineout was dominant as we expected. Well of course it will be dominant if the lineout isn’t contested; that’s a no brainer. If you can’t counter the superior Springbok maul, why facilitate their construction of a maul?

Attention to the breakdowns was better this week – at least the ABs realised a breakdown had occurred. However, the Springboks continued to excel at killing the ball. Until we have referees who recognise that you don’t have to be playing the ball to infringe in a ruck, that just lying ‘innocently’ in the wrong place is just as effective, then rucks will continue to be a farcical frustration. What’s more Burger wasn’t there.

The Springboks won. They have a winning formula. I suspect they will trot it out again in Durban. The ABs have to devise an effective counter to the Bloemfontein formula. To be effective the ABs have to: (a) perform the basics better; (b) outwit the Springboks. Simple really.

3N Game 2: NZ v RSA at Bloemfontein 25 July 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Flower Child (17)		by 6
2	Western Wizard (17)		by 14
3	Eurochick (15)		by 3
4	Valentino (15)		draw
5	The Panel Predicts (15)		by 3
6	Numbers Man (10)		by 7
7	Purple Princess (0)		by 10
8	Rocky (0)		by 3
9	Jekyll (0)		by 7
10	Mr Gum (0)		by 10

Comments from…

Valentino: “The Springboks performed almost credibly well against the British and Irish Lions: 2:1. The one lost test [a thrashing] shows the current team is far from invincible. The All Blacks performed tolerably against the French and the Italians – tolerably if you are French or Italian. The win against the Wallabies in the T-N opener was a win but little else. So who will win in T-N week 2? The Springboks have a long tradition of dirty play to defend. The dirt is cleaner in latter years and has been converted into professional fouls – the Springboks retain the World Cup for killing the ball at the breakdown. However, with the master exponent Schalk Burger missing in action, the All Blacks might be able to improve their performance at the breakdown if only they can be alerted to when play has broken down. So, eye gouging and ear biting aside [behaviours the bouncy ruminants have appropriated and perfected from the big cats – the African ones, not the UK variety], the question remains, ‘Can the ABs maul the ‘Boks?’ The answer is ‘Yes’. ‘Will the ABs maul the ‘Boks at Bloemfontein next Saturday?’ The answer is ‘Unlikely. The Abs will in time, but they have yet to display the cohesion and flair that will enable them to do so’. In other words, if the ABs can draw with the ‘Boks in this first encounter they will be doing well.”

Purple Princess: “I like the Springboks because it’s a funny name.”

3N Game 1: NZ v AUS at Auckland 18 July 2009

Rank	Expert (Score)	Pick	Margin
1	Mr Gum (0)		by 5
2	Rocky (0)		by 8
3	Numbers Man (0)		by 12
4	Eurochick (0)		by 2
5	Western Wizard (0)		by 4
6	Purple Princess (0)		by 10
7	Valentino (0)		by 10
8	Flower Child (0)		by 4
9	Jekyll (0)		by 6
10	The Panel Predicts (0)		by 1

What do the scores mean?

Well first of all, let’s get this clear. If you pick the losing team you get nothing, zip (unlike some other punting competitions). If you correctly pick the game outcome (win or draw) you get 10 points. If your predicted margin is within 5 of the actual margin, you get 5 points. Finally, there are 2 bonus points to reward the expert(s) with the closest pick.

Who’s in the Panel?

• Mr Gum, formerly of Durban, is a one-eyed SAFFA. He came last by miles in last year’s panel and will be looking to improve in ’09.
• Rocky, of Sydney, is a died-in-the-wool Tah supporter and still the only active rugby player on the panel.
• The Numbers Man is a mathematician at the University of Melbourne.
• Eurochick beat most of the blokes last year and is planning to do so again.
• Flower Child hails from Wyong in eastern Australia and likes to crochet while watching rugby.
• The Western Wizard is a cricket-loving statistician from Perth.
• Purple Princess is a 4 year old who knows nothing about rugby and likes dresses.
• Valentino is a ‘Canes supporter whose passion for rugby dates back to visits to Eden Park in the early 1920s.
• Jekyll, of Hong Kong, writes for Rugby Asteroid and topped last year’s panel for all 8 weeks.